Thumbnail Image

Dr. Rajendra Prasad Central Agricultural University, Pusa

In the imperial Gazetteer of India 1878, Pusa was recorded as a government estate of about 1350 acres in Darbhanba. It was acquired by East India Company for running a stud farm to supply better breed of horses mainly for the army. Frequent incidence of glanders disease (swelling of glands), mostly affecting the valuable imported bloodstock made the civil veterinary department to shift the entire stock out of Pusa. A British tobacco concern Beg Sutherland & co. got the estate on lease but it also left in 1897 abandoning the government estate of Pusa. Lord Mayo, The Viceroy and Governor General, had been repeatedly trying to get through his proposal for setting up a directorate general of Agriculture that would take care of the soil and its productivity, formulate newer techniques of cultivation, improve the quality of seeds and livestock and also arrange for imparting agricultural education. The government of India had invited a British expert. Dr. J. A. Voelcker who had submitted as report on the development of Indian agriculture. As a follow-up action, three experts in different fields were appointed for the first time during 1885 to 1895 namely, agricultural chemist (Dr. J. W. Leafer), cryptogamic botanist (Dr. R. A. Butler) and entomologist (Dr. H. Maxwell Lefroy) with headquarters at Dehradun (U.P.) in the forest Research Institute complex. Surprisingly, until now Pusa, which was destined to become the centre of agricultural revolution in the country, was lying as before an abandoned government estate. In 1898. Lord Curzon took over as the viceroy. A widely traveled person and an administrator, he salvaged out the earlier proposal and got London’s approval for the appointment of the inspector General of Agriculture to which the first incumbent Mr. J. Mollison (Dy. Director of Agriculture, Bombay) joined in 1901 with headquarters at Nagpur The then government of Bengal had mooted in 1902 a proposal to the centre for setting up a model cattle farm for improving the dilapidated condition of the livestock at Pusa estate where plenty of land, water and feed would be available, and with Mr. Mollison’s support this was accepted in principle. Around Pusa, there were many British planters and also an indigo research centre Dalsing Sarai (near Pusa). Mr. Mollison’s visits to this mini British kingdom and his strong recommendations. In favour of Pusa as the most ideal place for the Bengal government project obviously caught the attention for the viceroy.

Browse

20221
Reset filters
Subject: Agricultural Statistics and Informatics × Author: NAVEEN × End date: 2022 × Start date: 2022 × Thesis Type: M.Sc ×
Reset filters

Search Results

Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
  • Thumbnail Image
    ThesisItemOpen Access
    GROWTH ANALYSIS OF PIGEON PEA AND IT’S YIELD FORECASTING IN BIHAR AND KARNATAKA USING AUTO-REGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE (ARIMA) MODEL
    (DRPCAU, PUSA, 2022) NAVEEN; Kumar, Mahesh
    The present study entitled examine “Growth Analysis of pigeon pea and it’s yield forecasting in Bihar and Karnataka using Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model” is based on the growth trends and ARIMA models for forecasting pigeonpea yield in Bihar and Karnataka. The secondary data for the years 1980 to 2021 was retrieved from reliable websites like the Department of Economics and Statistics and India Agri Stat. For the purpose of forecasting pigeonpea yield, data up to the year 2019 were used to build the prediction model, and data from the following two years were retained for the forecast model's validation. Trend analysis and validity tests were also calculated. With the help of above facts, it was found that the ARIMA (1,0,1) model is best fitted for pigeonpea yield in Karnataka among all the models namely ARIMA (0,1,1), ARIMA (0,1,2), ARIMA (0,0,1), ARIMA (1,0,0), ARIMA (1,1,1), ARIMA (2,0,0) and ARIMA (2,0,1). The ARIMA (1,1,1) model is best fitted for forecasting of pigeonpea yield in Bihar among all the other models namely ARIMA (0,0,1), ARIMA (1,0,1), ARIMA (0,1,1), ARIMA (1,1,1), ARIMA (0,1,2), ARIMA (2,0,0) and ARIMA (2,0,1). The parameters of all these models were computed and tested for their significance. Various statistics were also computed for selecting the adequate and parsimonious model i.e., t-test and chi-square test. This is supported by low values of MAPE, MAE, RMSE and BIC for forecasting of pigeonpea yield in Karnataka and Bihar. Forecasting of pigeonpea yield for the upcoming two years was done using ARIMA models. The results showed that there was a steady decrease in the yield of pigeonpea in Karnataka as well as Bihar. Selected ARIMA model for forecasting of yield of Pigeonpea in Karnataka and Bihar are as below: Zt – Zt-1 = 524.811 + 0.931 (zt-1 - zt-2) - 0.717 (at-1 - at-2) + at (for Karnataka) Zt – Zt-1 = 16.019 + 0.485 (zt-1 - zt-2) – 0.995 (at-1 - at-2) + at ( for Bihar) In this study, lower and upper limits of the forecasted yield were also calculated with 95% of confidence interval. The forecasts done five years period ahead for the time series data of yield of pigeonpea by using the best fitted ARIMA (1, 0, 1) and ARIMA (1,1,1) models, respectively for Karnataka and Bihar. Further study was done for the trend analysis and it is found that the trend of area, production and yield of pigeonpea in Karnataka is in increasing order whereas as in Bihar area and production shows a decreasing trend but the yield is increasing in Bihar. For accuracy coefficient of determination is calculated. Compound Annual Growth Rates were also calculated and it was found that all are highly significant. Annual income of the majority of the farmers of the study area are in between 1 lakh to 5 lakh and Age, Caste, Occupation, Education, Family size, Size of operational land holding, Farming experience shows a positive correlation with the farmer’s income. The size of operational land shows highly significant with the dependent variable which is farmers income.