GROWTH ANALYSIS OF PIGEON PEA AND IT’S YIELD FORECASTING IN BIHAR AND KARNATAKA USING AUTO-REGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE (ARIMA) MODEL
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Date
2022
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DRPCAU, PUSA
Abstract
The present study entitled examine “Growth Analysis of pigeon pea and it’s yield forecasting in Bihar and Karnataka using Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model” is based on the growth trends and ARIMA models for forecasting pigeonpea yield in Bihar and Karnataka. The secondary data for the years 1980 to 2021 was retrieved from reliable websites like the Department of Economics and Statistics and India Agri Stat. For the purpose of forecasting pigeonpea yield, data up to the year 2019 were used to build the prediction model, and data from the following two years were retained for the forecast model's validation. Trend analysis and validity tests were also calculated.
With the help of above facts, it was found that the ARIMA (1,0,1) model is best fitted for pigeonpea yield in Karnataka among all the models namely ARIMA (0,1,1), ARIMA
(0,1,2), ARIMA (0,0,1), ARIMA (1,0,0), ARIMA (1,1,1), ARIMA (2,0,0) and ARIMA (2,0,1). The ARIMA (1,1,1) model is best fitted for forecasting of pigeonpea yield in Bihar among all the other models namely ARIMA (0,0,1), ARIMA (1,0,1), ARIMA (0,1,1), ARIMA (1,1,1), ARIMA (0,1,2), ARIMA (2,0,0) and ARIMA (2,0,1). The parameters of all these models were computed and tested for their significance. Various statistics were also computed for selecting the adequate and parsimonious model i.e., t-test and chi-square test. This is supported by low values of MAPE, MAE, RMSE and BIC for forecasting of pigeonpea yield in Karnataka and Bihar. Forecasting of pigeonpea yield for the upcoming two years was done using ARIMA models. The results showed that there was a steady decrease in the yield of pigeonpea in Karnataka as well as Bihar. Selected ARIMA model for forecasting of yield of Pigeonpea in Karnataka and Bihar are as below:
Zt – Zt-1 = 524.811 + 0.931 (zt-1 - zt-2) - 0.717 (at-1 - at-2) + at (for Karnataka)
Zt – Zt-1 = 16.019 + 0.485 (zt-1 - zt-2) – 0.995 (at-1 - at-2) + at ( for Bihar)
In this study, lower and upper limits of the forecasted yield were also calculated with 95% of confidence interval. The forecasts done five years period ahead for the time series data of yield of pigeonpea by using the best fitted ARIMA (1, 0, 1) and ARIMA (1,1,1) models, respectively for Karnataka and Bihar.
Further study was done for the trend analysis and it is found that the trend of area, production and yield of pigeonpea in Karnataka is in increasing order whereas as in Bihar area and production shows a decreasing trend but the yield is increasing in Bihar. For accuracy coefficient of determination is calculated. Compound Annual Growth Rates were also calculated and it was found that all are highly significant.
Annual income of the majority of the farmers of the study area are in between 1 lakh to 5 lakh and Age, Caste, Occupation, Education, Family size, Size of operational land holding, Farming experience shows a positive correlation with the farmer’s income. The size of operational land shows highly significant with the dependent variable which is farmers income.