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ThesisItem Open Access A Statistical Study on Food Security of India(University of Agricultural Science, Dharwad, 2017-06) Rijoy T.; Bhat, A.R.S.This study was conducted during 2016-2017 at the Department of Agricultural Statistics, University of Agricultural Sciences, Dharwad. The study was based on secondary data of area, production and productivity for the last 25 years from 1990 to 2015. For the investigation, growth rates of production of major food items, shifts in area under major food grains and requirement and availability of major food groups were studied by using compound annual growth rate, Markov chain and ARIMA techniques. Growth rate analysis revealed that maize was the cereal crop which marked the highest growth rate of production (4.58 %). Bengal gram, soybean, orange, onion and eggs showed the highest growth rates of production among pulses, oilseeds, fruits, vegetables and animal products. Markov chain analysis showed that maize had the highest retention among kharif cereals with respect to area (74.14 %) and least by sorghum (7.20 %). In rabi season, others (maize, barley, green gram, black gram and small millets) retained maximum area under cultivation of 67.61 per cent followed by bengal gram (58.01 %) and least was by ragi (16.59 %). Requirement and availability of the food items revealed that cereals and millets had an excess production and which was increasingly surplus whereas the difference between requirement and availability was found to be increasingly deficit in case of pulses and edible oils. Fruits and vegetables showed a deficit production compared to the requirement in the initial periods but became surplus in the later period of the study. Milk and meat production were also found to be deficit in the initial years and turned to surplus production in the later period. Availability of eggs was also found to be deficit but the gap was reducing over the years.ThesisItem Open Access A Statistical Investigation on Sugar Production in India(University of Agricultural Science, Dharwad, 2017-06) Megha J.; Havaldar, Y.N.A study on the detailed scenario of sugar production in India was conducted during 2015-2017 at the Department of Agricultural Statistics, University of Agricultural Sciences, Dharwad. The secondary data of area and production of sugarcane, sugar production and sugar export data was collected from 1990 to 2015. CAGR, CV, Coppack’s instability index, Cuddy della valle index, Markov chain analysis and non-linear regression models were employed to investigate the present study. India’s sugar production was found to be stable during the initial years but later on production was quite instable due to fluctuations in area and production of sugarcane. The results from Markov chain analysis revealed that the highest retention of export was noticed in UAE (83.00 %) followed by Malaysia (62.00 %), Srilanka (57.30 %), Bangladesh (38.20 %), USA (37.4 %) and other countries (56.40 %). To maintain their retention, UAE gained 6.7 percent of export from Srilanka, 25.8 per cent from USA and 4.4 percent from others. For predicting sugar production with respect to sugarcane area, the compound model was found to be best fit with highest R2 of 93.3 per cent, minimum root mean square error of 0.30 and standard error of 0.094. Based on the sugarcane production, cubic model was found to be best fit with highest R2 of 91.6 per cent, minimum mean square error and standard error of 0.103 and 0.10 respectively. Overall study revealed that sugar production and export was instable so the new technology should be introduced to increase the sugarcane and sugar production which helps the sugar export to be sustainable.ThesisItem Open Access A Statistical Measurement Into the Changes in Cardamom Production and Export in India(University of Agricultural Science, Dharwad, 2017-06) Bagalkoti, Jyoti B.; Bhat, A.R.S.The study was to know the behaviour of the cardamom production, export, shift in cardamom export and factors affecting to the export of cardamom. Secondary data was used for the present research. Compound annual growth rate, instability index, coppock’s instability index, correlation analysis, simple linear regression, markov chain analysis were used in the study. The growth performance of cardamom production and productivity was found to be highly significant over the period. The instability of cardamom production and productivity was low and were showing stable growth. The overall growth rate of cardamom export was found to be significant and there was high instability. Coppock’s instability index was calculated for two sub periods separately and India as whole. The results revealed that production and productivity of cardamom in both the periods was found to be stable and also for overall study period the instability was highly stable. Simple linear regression indicated that, all the variables i.e., production, consumption, domestic price and export price were positively contributing to the export of cardamom. Among them production and export price were highly significant. Structural change of cardamom export from India was examined by estimating the transitional probability matrix using markov chain. The major countries selected were Saudi Arabia, Japan, Kuwait, UAE, USA and remaining countries were considered under ‘Others’ category. The results showed that Kuwait was the most stable market among the major importers of Indian cardamom followed by Saudi Arabia (66.53 %), USA (46.42 %), Others (41.24 %), UAE (30.28 %) and Japan (02.24 %).ThesisItem Open Access Development of Food Grain Production Index in Karnataka(University of Agricultural Science, Dharwad, 2017-07) Pavithra N.L.; Ashalatha K.V.The study was conducted during 2016 at Department of Agricultural Statistics, University of Agricultural Sciences, Dharwad. The study was based on secondary data for twenty five years from 1990-91 to 2014-15. The technique of descriptive, compound growth rate, co-efficient of variation, Markov chain analysis, composite index, correlation analysis, simple linear regression and non-linear regression were used. Descriptive statistics pertaining to area, production and productivity of food grains in Karnataka state over a period of years indicates the average area was found to be higher in sorghum, average production and productivity was found to be higher in case of paddy. The highest positive CAGR was observed in maize, chickpea and pigeonpea in case of area, production and productivity among cereals and pulses. Paddy showed lowest coefficient of variation in area, production and productivity. Field bean showed higher coefficient of variation in production and productivity. Transitional probability matrix was used to study the shift in area of selected crops. Highest retention was found in sorghum (74.73 %) followed by paddy and maize (56.08 % and 49.03 %, respectively). Based on the composite indices of production indicator, Raichur district was ranked first in food grain production in the study period. In case of correlation analysis, the demand of pulses was significant and positively correlated with production of pulses. In case of simple linear regression, production of pulses was contributing significantly to the demand of pulses. For demand of pulses linear model, quadratic models, compound model, power model, growth model, exponential model and logistic model were found to be significant. Linear and quadratic models were found to best fit for production of pulses because of its highest R2 (36.8 %) and lowest standard error (0.141).ThesisItem Open Access Statistical Analysis of Sugarcane Yield In Belagavi District(University of Agricultural Science, Dharwad, 2017-07) Hanabar, Siddu; Havaldar, Y.N.ABSTRACT The study was conducted during 2016 at Department of Agricultural Statistics, University of Agricultural Sciences, Dharwad. In Karnataka, Belagavi occupies first place in the sugarcane production. Sugarcane is a renewable natural agriculture resource as it provides sugar, biofuel, fibre, fertilizer and by-products or co-products with ecological sustainability. Both primary and secondary data was collected to satisfy the specific objectives. The secondary data was collected from 1990-91 to 2014-15 and the primary data was collected from 100 farmers randomly in selected taluks of Belagavi district. The statistical tools used to analyse the collected data were Non-linear regression models, Path analysis and Garrette’s ranking. In case of both area and production, exponential model showed best fit because of highest R2, lowest standard error and least mean square error. In case of multiple regression, rainfall and relative humidity (morning) were highly significant but negatively contributing. Whereas, minimum temperature is significant and positively contributing to sugarcane production with R2 value 66 per cent and minimum temperature was positive and significantly contributing to yield of sugarcane with R2 value 27 per cent. Minimum temperature had highest direct effect on production followed by maximum temperature and relative humidity (evening). Relative humidity (morning) followed by rainfall had negative direct effect on production of sugarcane. In case of sugarcane yield, except relative humidity (morning) all the weather parameters had positive direct effect. In order to rank the production and marketing constraints, Garrett’s ranking technique was carried out. Non-availability of water for irrigation ranked first in case of production constraints and low price in local market ranked first in case of marketing constraints.ThesisItem Open Access Development of Decision Support System on Pulse Crops (Cowpea and Chickpea) in Dharwad District (Karnataka)(University of Agricultural Science, Dharwad, 2016-06) Das, Chiranjib; Ashalatha K.V.The Decision Support System (DSS) has been developed in MySQL (My Structured Query Language) and windows 8 operating system is used. MySQL is relational database management system which provides data definition language to create relations and data manipulation language to execute SQL queries. Secondary data is used for the present research. Software includes seven windows, user has required to feed the mandatory details to get required information of selected crops based on package of practices, area and production. DSS includes question and answer forum through which farmers will be able to query regarding any problems about crops and experts can give their suggestions to the queries. Extensively agricultural extension workers, scientists, researchers can use this software. This DSS is farmers friendly. Farmers, having little aware of computer can use. They can contact with the agricultural organisation, using this type of database system which can help farmers by giving valuable suggestion. Come back facility is there in each window. This DSS can be updated further. Statistical investigation was carried out to know shift in area of pulse crops, instability of selected pulse crops and relationship between area, weather parameters and production of selected crops in Dharwad. Markov chain analysis, Coppock’s instability analysis, correlation and multiple regression analysis were used as tools. Markov chain analysis revealed that the retention was highest in chickpea crop and lowest retention was noticed in cowpea and arhar crops, instability analysis revealed that overall instability was higher in case of chickpea than cowpea throughout the periods. Multiple regression results revealed that in case of chickpea crop, maximum temperature relative humidity and rainfall were contributing significantly to the production of chickpea out of five parameters viz. area, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, relative humidity and rainfall, maximum temperature has significant negative impact to the production of cowpea crop.ThesisItem Open Access Trends and Patterns in Migration of Agricultural Labourers in Dharwad District - A Statistical Study(University of Agricultural Science, Dharwad, 2016-06) Karemmanavar, Anita H.; Ashalatha, K.V.Migration is an important feature of human civilization. It reflects, human endeavour to survive in the most testing conditions both natural and manmade. There are several reasons for the migration, thus the study was carried out based on the secondary data and primary data. Secondary data was collected from different websites, district statistical office etc. and primary data collected from the two taluks of Dharwad district viz., Dharwad, Kundgol. Totally 100 samples were selected from two taluks. Tabular analysis showed that in 2011 there was sudden fall in agricultural labourers percentage i.e., 11.77 to 7.94. Survival ratio method showed that highest estimated net migration was observed in districts like Raichur, Gulbarga and Shimoga in 1971-81 and in 2001-11, highest migration was seen in Belgaum, Bellary and Gulbarga. Correlation coefficients for the variables viz., agricultural labourers, area and production, crops like Maize, Jowar, Wheat, Groundnut and Cotton revealed that there was significant relation between the area of Maize, Jowar and Cotton with migration of agricultural labourers. Multiple regression analysis showed that area of Jowar and Cotton crops were significantly contributing to the migration of agricultural labourers. Socio-personal characteristics showing that, 56 per cent of the agricultural labourers were belongs to the lower middle class. Garrett ranking technique shows that, Drought is one of most important push factor for migration and employment opportunities is one of the most important pull factors for migration. Paired ‘t’ test showing the impact of migration on agricultural labourers that is the socio economic changes in agricultural labourers was much better after migration than before migration.ThesisItem Open Access Development of Database Management System for Selected Commercial Crops(University of Agricultural Science, Dharwad, 2016-06) Sali, Ashika; Bhat, A.R.S.A study was carried out on development of database management system in Dharwad district for chilli (Capsicum annuum) and potato (Solanum tuberosum) crop using secondary data of about twenty years from 1991 to 2010. Transitional probability matrix was used to study the shift in area of selected crops. Highest shift was found in chilli crop (93 %) followed by cotton and sunflower crop (92 % and 70 % respectively). Multiple regression analysis for the study of influence of climatic factors on production of selected commercial crops revealed that maximum temperature, minimum temperature and relative humidity (morning) were significant for chilli production with R2 value 71.7 per cent and only maximum temperature was found significant for potato crop production with R2 value 36.1 per cent. Coppocks instability index showed highest instability for productivity of chilli crop (117.54 %) and production in potato crop (145.75 %). The database management system is designed with an objective of providing solutions to the crop related problems which has additional platform for interaction between source updater and end users for their queries. It’s mainly used to provide agriculture extension services to farmers and to transfer the latest technical knowledge to the farming community, so that the overall agricultural production will be increased over district. The database management system has been developed in the MySQL database and server type hardware. Name of the webpage is given as “KRUISHIDHAMA”, which contain detailed information about package of practice i.e. origin, introduction, botany, seeds, sowing, varieties, pests, diseases, weed and water management & harvesting of selected commercial crops grown in Dharwad. This tool provides necessary information to farmers, administrator, agriculture extension workers, researchers and students.ThesisItem Open Access Effect of Weather Parameters and Nutrient Uptake on Production of Rabi Sorghum- A Statistical Analysis(University of Agricultural Science, Dharwad, 2016-06) Shruthi H.D.; Havaldar, Y.N.Sorghum (Sorghum bicolor L. Moench) is one of the main staple crops for the world's poorest and most food-insecure people. It is considered as king of millet and “Camel crop”. The research data for sorghum was collected based on the experiment conducted by All India Co-ordinated Research Project (AICRP) on Sorghum and meteorological data (on maximum temperature, minimum temperature, rainfall, relative humidity at morning and relative humidity at evening) were collected from meteorological observatory at Main Agricultural Research Station, UAS, Dharwad from 2011 to 2014. The technique of model fitting, simple linear regression, multiple linear regression, factorial design and path analysis were adopted to study the fluctuations, impact of weather parameters and fertilizers on rabi sorghum yield. For rabi sorghum yield, plant height and 100 seed weight, cubic and quadratic models were found to be significant. In case of multiple linear regressions, among the weather parameters, maximum temperature was contributing significantly and negatively to the yield of sorghum and rainfall was significantly and positively contributing to the yield of sorghum. In case of multiple regression on recommended dose of fertilizers, plant height and 100 seed weight were significantly contributing to the yield of rabi sorghum when 100 per cent RDF was applied. Path analysis for yield of sorghum revealed that all the characters such as plant height and harvest index had positive correlation with yield. Plant height and 100 seed weight had direct effect on yield of rabi sorghum. The 100 seed weight and harvest index have exhibited indirect positive effect on the yield. The total indirect effect of plant height was negative. The study indicated that there is a genuine relationship between plant height and 100 seed weight with rabi sorghum yield.
