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ThesisItem Open Access A Statistical Study on Food Security of India(University of Agricultural Science, Dharwad, 2017-06) Rijoy T.; Bhat, A.R.S.This study was conducted during 2016-2017 at the Department of Agricultural Statistics, University of Agricultural Sciences, Dharwad. The study was based on secondary data of area, production and productivity for the last 25 years from 1990 to 2015. For the investigation, growth rates of production of major food items, shifts in area under major food grains and requirement and availability of major food groups were studied by using compound annual growth rate, Markov chain and ARIMA techniques. Growth rate analysis revealed that maize was the cereal crop which marked the highest growth rate of production (4.58 %). Bengal gram, soybean, orange, onion and eggs showed the highest growth rates of production among pulses, oilseeds, fruits, vegetables and animal products. Markov chain analysis showed that maize had the highest retention among kharif cereals with respect to area (74.14 %) and least by sorghum (7.20 %). In rabi season, others (maize, barley, green gram, black gram and small millets) retained maximum area under cultivation of 67.61 per cent followed by bengal gram (58.01 %) and least was by ragi (16.59 %). Requirement and availability of the food items revealed that cereals and millets had an excess production and which was increasingly surplus whereas the difference between requirement and availability was found to be increasingly deficit in case of pulses and edible oils. Fruits and vegetables showed a deficit production compared to the requirement in the initial periods but became surplus in the later period of the study. Milk and meat production were also found to be deficit in the initial years and turned to surplus production in the later period. Availability of eggs was also found to be deficit but the gap was reducing over the years.ThesisItem Open Access A Statistical Investigation on Sugar Production in India(University of Agricultural Science, Dharwad, 2017-06) Megha J.; Havaldar, Y.N.A study on the detailed scenario of sugar production in India was conducted during 2015-2017 at the Department of Agricultural Statistics, University of Agricultural Sciences, Dharwad. The secondary data of area and production of sugarcane, sugar production and sugar export data was collected from 1990 to 2015. CAGR, CV, Coppack’s instability index, Cuddy della valle index, Markov chain analysis and non-linear regression models were employed to investigate the present study. India’s sugar production was found to be stable during the initial years but later on production was quite instable due to fluctuations in area and production of sugarcane. The results from Markov chain analysis revealed that the highest retention of export was noticed in UAE (83.00 %) followed by Malaysia (62.00 %), Srilanka (57.30 %), Bangladesh (38.20 %), USA (37.4 %) and other countries (56.40 %). To maintain their retention, UAE gained 6.7 percent of export from Srilanka, 25.8 per cent from USA and 4.4 percent from others. For predicting sugar production with respect to sugarcane area, the compound model was found to be best fit with highest R2 of 93.3 per cent, minimum root mean square error of 0.30 and standard error of 0.094. Based on the sugarcane production, cubic model was found to be best fit with highest R2 of 91.6 per cent, minimum mean square error and standard error of 0.103 and 0.10 respectively. Overall study revealed that sugar production and export was instable so the new technology should be introduced to increase the sugarcane and sugar production which helps the sugar export to be sustainable.ThesisItem Open Access A Statistical Measurement Into the Changes in Cardamom Production and Export in India(University of Agricultural Science, Dharwad, 2017-06) Bagalkoti, Jyoti B.; Bhat, A.R.S.The study was to know the behaviour of the cardamom production, export, shift in cardamom export and factors affecting to the export of cardamom. Secondary data was used for the present research. Compound annual growth rate, instability index, coppock’s instability index, correlation analysis, simple linear regression, markov chain analysis were used in the study. The growth performance of cardamom production and productivity was found to be highly significant over the period. The instability of cardamom production and productivity was low and were showing stable growth. The overall growth rate of cardamom export was found to be significant and there was high instability. Coppock’s instability index was calculated for two sub periods separately and India as whole. The results revealed that production and productivity of cardamom in both the periods was found to be stable and also for overall study period the instability was highly stable. Simple linear regression indicated that, all the variables i.e., production, consumption, domestic price and export price were positively contributing to the export of cardamom. Among them production and export price were highly significant. Structural change of cardamom export from India was examined by estimating the transitional probability matrix using markov chain. The major countries selected were Saudi Arabia, Japan, Kuwait, UAE, USA and remaining countries were considered under ‘Others’ category. The results showed that Kuwait was the most stable market among the major importers of Indian cardamom followed by Saudi Arabia (66.53 %), USA (46.42 %), Others (41.24 %), UAE (30.28 %) and Japan (02.24 %).ThesisItem Open Access Development of Food Grain Production Index in Karnataka(University of Agricultural Science, Dharwad, 2017-07) Pavithra N.L.; Ashalatha K.V.The study was conducted during 2016 at Department of Agricultural Statistics, University of Agricultural Sciences, Dharwad. The study was based on secondary data for twenty five years from 1990-91 to 2014-15. The technique of descriptive, compound growth rate, co-efficient of variation, Markov chain analysis, composite index, correlation analysis, simple linear regression and non-linear regression were used. Descriptive statistics pertaining to area, production and productivity of food grains in Karnataka state over a period of years indicates the average area was found to be higher in sorghum, average production and productivity was found to be higher in case of paddy. The highest positive CAGR was observed in maize, chickpea and pigeonpea in case of area, production and productivity among cereals and pulses. Paddy showed lowest coefficient of variation in area, production and productivity. Field bean showed higher coefficient of variation in production and productivity. Transitional probability matrix was used to study the shift in area of selected crops. Highest retention was found in sorghum (74.73 %) followed by paddy and maize (56.08 % and 49.03 %, respectively). Based on the composite indices of production indicator, Raichur district was ranked first in food grain production in the study period. In case of correlation analysis, the demand of pulses was significant and positively correlated with production of pulses. In case of simple linear regression, production of pulses was contributing significantly to the demand of pulses. For demand of pulses linear model, quadratic models, compound model, power model, growth model, exponential model and logistic model were found to be significant. Linear and quadratic models were found to best fit for production of pulses because of its highest R2 (36.8 %) and lowest standard error (0.141).ThesisItem Open Access Statistical Analysis of Sugarcane Yield In Belagavi District(University of Agricultural Science, Dharwad, 2017-07) Hanabar, Siddu; Havaldar, Y.N.ABSTRACT The study was conducted during 2016 at Department of Agricultural Statistics, University of Agricultural Sciences, Dharwad. In Karnataka, Belagavi occupies first place in the sugarcane production. Sugarcane is a renewable natural agriculture resource as it provides sugar, biofuel, fibre, fertilizer and by-products or co-products with ecological sustainability. Both primary and secondary data was collected to satisfy the specific objectives. The secondary data was collected from 1990-91 to 2014-15 and the primary data was collected from 100 farmers randomly in selected taluks of Belagavi district. The statistical tools used to analyse the collected data were Non-linear regression models, Path analysis and Garrette’s ranking. In case of both area and production, exponential model showed best fit because of highest R2, lowest standard error and least mean square error. In case of multiple regression, rainfall and relative humidity (morning) were highly significant but negatively contributing. Whereas, minimum temperature is significant and positively contributing to sugarcane production with R2 value 66 per cent and minimum temperature was positive and significantly contributing to yield of sugarcane with R2 value 27 per cent. Minimum temperature had highest direct effect on production followed by maximum temperature and relative humidity (evening). Relative humidity (morning) followed by rainfall had negative direct effect on production of sugarcane. In case of sugarcane yield, except relative humidity (morning) all the weather parameters had positive direct effect. In order to rank the production and marketing constraints, Garrett’s ranking technique was carried out. Non-availability of water for irrigation ranked first in case of production constraints and low price in local market ranked first in case of marketing constraints.
