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Subject: Processing and Food Engineering × Author: Negi, Kriti × End date: 2013 × Thesis Type: M.Tech ×
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    ThesisItemOpen Access
    Studies on probability analysis and future forecast for monthly arrivals and prices of selected fruits and vegetables in Dehradun Mandi
    (G.B. Pant University of Agriculture and Technology, Pantnagar - 263145 (Uttarakhand), 2013-06) Negi, Kriti; Pandey, R.K.
    In this thesis work, an attempt has been made to carry out the probability analysis of monthly arrival and price data of five fruits and vegetables collected from Dehradun mandi for a period of 10 years(2003-2012) ,based on which future forecast for their arrival and price values has been made for a period of 2 years. The data was subjected to frequency analysis using four distribution functions, viz. Normal, Log Normal, Pearson type-III and Log Pearson type-III distributions. Then the average percentage deviation between observed and expected values was found out to test their goodness of fit to the analysed data. The future forecast values were obtained for next two years using past 8 years data. The forecast was made using Log normal distribution at 50% probability level. Fruit/vegetable-wise and probability –wise average percentage deviation was calculated to obtain the best fit distribution to the data. It was observed from the study that Normal distribution gave a good fit to the analysed data and best fit was given by all distributions at 50% probability level. It was observed that the future forecast of arrival for next two years was generally higher from the 8 years data due to an increase in production and demand pattern of these commodities. The price forecast also showed an increase for next two years which is due to the increase in demand as compared to the arrival of these commodities and some technological factors. The future forecasted arrival and price values of some commodities showed an uncertain trend which may be due to some techno-economic factors. With this, the conclusion was made for my research topic on probability analysis of the arrival and price data of some agricultural commodities of Dehradun mandi.