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ThesisItem Open Access Bayesian analysis of wheat productivity data(G.B. Pant University of Agriculture and Technology, Pantnagar - 263145 (Uttarakhand), 2020-09) Maitreya; Vinod KumarThesisItem Open Access A statistical study on prevalence of anemia in adolescent girls(G.B. Pant University of Agriculture and Technology, Pantnagar - 263145 (Uttarakhand), 2020-11) Chauhan, Chaya; Shukla, A.K.Present work deals with the statistical analysis of anthropometric parameters and sociodemographic data of adolescent girls to check the prevalence of Anemia in the Rural and Tribal area of Udham Singh Nagar District of Uttarakhand. The study is based on secondary data related to anthropometric and socio-demographic parameters of 520 adolescent girls (170 Rural and 350 Tribal). The study was conducted by categorizing the whole dataset into two categories according to their age i.e. Early adolescent girls & Late adolescent girls. Major conclusions of the study are: 1. On basis of distribution patterns of the seven parameters viz. Weight, Height, Waist Circumference, Hip Circumference, Waist to Hip Ratio, BMI & Haemoglobin obtained using EasyFit 5.6 Professional software, it was concluded that probability distribution of only one parameter i.e. Height in the case of Rural Late Adolescent Girls category follows Normal Distribution. Other than it, all of the parameters in different categories of Rural and Tribal Adolescent Girls follow Non-Normal distribution. 2. On the basis of Karl Pearson’s Correlation Coefficient and Chi-square test of Independence relationship between various anthropometric parameters and socio demographic parameters was found. Only one anthropometric parameter i.e. Waist to Height Ratio was negatively correlated with Haemoglobin. It was also found that Haemoglobin depends on sociodemographic parameters viz. No. of Family members, No. of siblings, Age at the time of Menarche, Standard of Living Score, Food Habit, No. of Home prepared meals taken in a day, Menarche Achieved, Menstrual Flow, Avoiding Food during Menstrual Cycle, Nutrition Education on Anemia, Fasting Frequency and Socio-economic class. 3. On the basis of Z test used for comparison of various anthropometric parameters and Haemoglobin for Rural and Tribal adolescent girls, it was concluded that there is a significant difference between the Weights of Rural and Tribal Early Adolescent Girls.. A significant difference was found between Weight, Height, Waist Circumference, Hip circumference, Waist to Height Ratio and Haemoglobin in case of Rural and Tribal Late adolescent girls. A significant difference was also observed in prevalence of Anemia in Rural and Tribal Late adolescent girls. 4. On the basis of Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) and Binomial Logistic Regression (BLR) models developed for prediction of Haemoglobin and BMI, it was concluded that Multiple Linear Regression provides better result than Binomial Logistic Regression model for estimating Haemoglobin and BMI in case of Rural Late Adolescent Girls, Tribal Early and Late Adolescent Girls categories. However, BLR model was found better than MLR for estimating Haemoglobin in case of Rural Early Adolescent Girls. The findings of the study are expected to provide useful information to the nutritionist and health experts for future policy planning in the study area.ThesisItem Open Access A statistical study of temperature forecasting data(G.B. Pant University of Agriculture and Technology, Pantnagar - 263145 (Uttarakhand), 2020-12) Abhishek, S.S.; Bhardwaj, S.B.In our daily life, we often use some forecasting techniques to predict weather, temperature, economy, etc. Based on these forecasting results, we can prevent damages to occur or get benefits from the forecasting activities. In fact, an event in the real-world can be affected by many factors. The more the facts we consider, the higher the forecasting accuracy rate. Moreover, the length of each interval in the universe of discourse also affects the forecasting results. The present research work entitled ‘A statistical study of temperature forecasting data’ has been undertaken to compute errors empirically by considering the actual temperature along with corresponding 36 months forecasted observations. Moreover, an attempt has been made to measure the forecast accuracy with actual maximum and minimum temperatures with corresponding hypothetical temperatures of last 36 months using Theil’s U-statistic. A low value of Theil’s statistic is revealing that there is a greater forecasting accuracy for both the actual minimum and maximum temperatures and the corresponding hypothetical forecasted observations. In the final segment of this study, identification of the best fitted model using exponential smoothing method through coefficient of determination (R2), mean absolute error (MAE) and mean absolute percent error (MAPE) has also been done. The model Holtwinters’ additive model was found to be best fitted model as it has exhibits highest R2 and lowest MAE and MAPE values. The study was carried out for Pantnagar, U. S Nagar, Uttarakhand using time series data from 2017 to 2019.ThesisItem Open Access Bayesian estimation of the survival characteristics for weighted Xgamma distribution(G.B. Pant University of Agriculture and Technology, Pantnagar - 263145 (Uttarakhand), 2020-10) Jai Prakash; Vinod KumarIn present study a weighted version of xgamma distribution is introduced and studied, which is a life time distribution. We work out its length biased version and distributional properties. The Maximum Likelihood estimates of the parameter ϴ have been obtained by means of Newton Rapson method. With the help of Tierney and Kadane method of approximation, we have obtained Bayes estimators of ϴ, Survival function, failure rate function and Mean time to failure under two priors namely gamma and uniform. The result obtained have been illustrated by means of several randomly generated data sets from the proposed distribution each replicated 10000 times. The Bayes risks have been evaluated by SELF. A real life data set has also been used to estabilish its utility. It is concluded that gamma prior is superior to uniform prior for finding the Bayes estimates of the parameter ϴ, Survival function, failure rate function and Mean time to failure of the length biased version of the proposed distribution.ThesisItem Open Access Statistical investigation of the effects of fertilizers on rice crop characteristics(G.B. Pant University of Agriculture and Technology, Pantnagar - 263145 (Uttarakhand), 2020-02) Rawat, Manish; Vinod KumarThe aim of the study was to analyse the effect of fertilizers on Rice crop characteristics and its impact on grain yield. The data were collected from Norman E. Borlaug Crop Research Centre, G.B.P.U.A&T. Pantnagar, Rice Agronomy block. The experiment was laid out in Randomise Block Design with four replications and readings were taken timely as on the critical stages of the crop. The results of the study revealed that all crop characteristics were positively correlated with grain yield. Also multiple regression equation was obtained by the help of multiple regression models for predicting grain yield. Effectiveness of fertilizer treatments were tested by ANOVA and ANCOVA, it was found that different fertilizer combinations are significant with grain yield with p=0.000. Thus, the results obtained through ANOVA and ANCOVA are similar. Then ANOVA and ANCOVA were carried out for all five crop characteristics viz. Height, Test Weight, Shoot Number, Panicles number and Spikelet number. It was found that the treatments (different fertilizer combinations) are significant for all five characters with p=0.000. DMRT was also applied to compare the treatments pair-wise. Path coefficient analysis was performed to find direct and indirect effects of crop characteristics on grain yield. Results revealed that Test weight, Panicle number and Number of spikelets had direct positive effect on grain yield while Height and Shoot number had negative direct effect on grain yield.ThesisItem Open Access Assessment of long term trends in weather parameters at Manipur (District Imphal East)(G.B. Pant University of Agriculture and Technology, Pantnagar - 263145 (Uttarakhand), 2020-10) Khan, Yunish; Ahmad, HaseenThe present investigation was carried out to study the weather parameters viz. maximum temperature, minimum temperature and precipitation for Manipur (District Imphal East) over the period of 102 years (1901-2002). The data were collected from Indian Water Portal website www.indianwaterportal.org. The objectives of the study were to analyze the trends, variability and distribution fitting for weather parameters on annual, seasonal and monthly basis and different measures of statistics viz. mean, standard deviation, skewness, kurtosis etc. were calculated to test the normality of weather parameters by using Microsoft Excel and IBM SPSS software. The values of 𝛾 0, 𝛽 0 shows that the weather parameters did not follow normal distribution. A comparative study was made among the weather parameters by fitting a trend line by method of least squares to obtained best fitted straight line trend. Then studied the best fit distributions by using Easy Fit 5.6 Software. The study showed significantly increasing trends for winter and pre-monsoon season’s precipitation and significant decreasing trends for monsoon and post-monsoon seasons precipitation, whereas annual & monthly precipitation showed significant decreasing and insignificant increasing trends. For maximum temperature; winter, pre-monsoon, monsoon and post-monsoon seasons showed significant increasing and decreasing trends. For minimum temperature, pre-monsoon and post-monsoon seasons showed significant increasing and decreasing trends while winter and monsoon seasons showed insignificant increasing and decreasing trends. Annual maximum temperature showed significant increasing trend whereas annual minimum temperature showed insignificant increasing trend. Monthly maximum and minimum temperatures showed insignificant increasing trends.
