Thumbnail Image

Theses

Browse

20191
Reset filters
Subject: Agricultural Meteorology × Author: Chauhan, Pritam Singh × End date: 2024 × Type: Thesis × Thesis Type: M.Sc ×
Reset filters

Search Results

Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
  • Thumbnail Image
    ThesisItemOpen Access
    Application of ceres-rice model embedded in DSSAT 4.7 for district level rice yield forecast
    (G.B. Pant University of Agriculture and Technology, Pantnagar - 263145 (Uttarakhand), 2019-08) Chauhan, Pritam Singh; Ravi Kiran
    The present study was conducted at the Norman E. Borlaug Crop Research Centre of G.B. Pant University of Agriculture and Technology, Pantnagar during the kharif season 2018. For district level rice yield forecast and Impact of climate change on rice yield under RCP 4.5 and RCP 6.0 by using CERES-Rice model in Tarai region of Uttarakhand. The experiment was laid out with two prominent cultivars (Pant Basmati-1 and HKR-47), three transplanting dates (29th June, 09th July and 19th July) and two levels of irrigation (100mm and 75mm) to calibrate the CERES-Rice model so that model could be used for district level rice yield forecast and to study the impact of climate change on rice yield under RCP 4.5 and RCP 6.0. Experimental analysis suggested that Pant Basmati-1 and HKR-47 both varieties performed better when transplanted on 29th June as compared to 09th July and 19th July. The performance of the model CERES-Rice was satisfactory for all transplanting dates, both irrigation levels and both varieties during the period of study for almost all crop characters. %RMSE for observed and simulated data for Panicle initiation, Anthesis, Physiological maturity and grain yield were found 4.09, 5.54, 3.99 and 4.92, respectively for Pant Basmati-1. While in case of HKR 47 %RMSE for Panicle initiation, Anthesis, Physiological maturity and Grain yield were found 5.4, 2.67, 3.94 and 5.48, respectively. The sensitivity analysis of crop simulation model suggests that the grain yield decreased with increasing temperatures by 1, 2, 3°C, increased with increasing CO2concentration by 25, 50, 75, 100 ppm, increased with increasing in Solar Radiation by 1, 2, 3 MJ/m2/d, increased with increasing Nitrogen by 25, 50, 75% and vice versa across all transplanting dates. The model was found to be highly sensitive to the change in temperature and Nitrogen. The district level rice yield prediction for a period of 11 years (2006 to 2016) shows quite good agreement between observed rice yield and predicted yield with %RMSE 5.24 %. Similarly district level rice yields were also forecasted for two years (2017 to 2018) by adopting same approach. The simulation result shows that increase in daily average temperature can slow down rice phonological development in Udham Singh Nagar under both RCPs. The yield of both varieties (Pant Basmati 1 and HKR 47) would decrease in the future and decreases were hiegher under RCP 6.0 then RCP 4.5. (Ravi Kiran) (