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Subject: Agricultural Meteorology × Author: Baljeet Kaur × End date: 2018 × Thesis Type: Ph.D ×
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    Impacts of climate change on spatio-temporal variability in cropping patterns over trans-gangatic plains
    (Punjab Agricultural University, Ludhiana, 2018) Baljeet Kaur; Som Pal Singh
    In the present study, analysis of spatial and temporal variation in climatic parameters and cropping patterns in trans-gangetic plains was carried out. The historical climatic data and data pertaining to area and productivity of wheat, rice and maize crops for the period 1971-72 to 2015-16 were employed for the investigation. The climatic data was analysed on the basis of decades, years and season using Mann Kendall and Sen’s slope statistics to examine the variability and trends over the study area. Spatial and temporal interpolations using Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW) method were used to develop the gradient of the data. Relative change in area of wheat, rice and maize was determined decade-wise. Step-wise regression was used to study the impact of climate change on wheat, rice and maize productivity. Under future climatic scenario RCP8.5, InfoCrop model was evaluated to project the wheat, rice and maize yields. During rabi season, higher rate of maximum and minimum temperature was observed for Haryana and central zone of Punjab. No trend was observed in rainfall in trans-gangetic plains. Rate of increase in maximum temperature was 0.063 oC for Haryana, 0.04 oC for northern Rajasthan and 0.049 oC for Delhi. Rate of increase in minimum temperature was 0.031oC for Punjab and 0.045 oC for Haryana. Area under wheat over TGP increased at the rate of 468 ha per decade significantly (R2 =0.92). It has increased by 24.68%, 80.93%, 9.39% and 39.80% in Punjab, Haryana, northern Rajasthan and TGP; respectively whereas area under wheat in Delhi decreased by 57.78% as compared with 1971-80. The analysis of area under rice and maize revealed that area under maize declined over the trans-gangetic plain region by 70.7% in 2016 compared with 1980. Per cent change in rice area was 157.6 in TGP. Wheat and maize productivity was affected negatively mostly by minimum temperature alone. Rice productivity showed positive relationship with increasing trends of temperature. Future projection of wheat, rice and maize showed that wheat productivity will decrease more in Punjab (R2=0.76) followed by Delhi (R2=0.72) and Haryana (R2=0.66). Decline in rice yield will be more in northern Rajasthan (R2=0.62) followed by Delhi (R2=0.58). More declines in maize will be in Haryana (R2= 0.77) under future climatic scenario.