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Author: Sowmya, Ravada × Type: Thesis ×
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    ThesisItemOpen Access
    Trend analysis of area, production and trade of major agricultural crops in BRICS countries
    (CCSHAU, Hisar, 2022-07-22) Sowmya, Ravada; Joginder
    The present study was carried out with the objectives: firstly, to identify the trends of area, production and trade of wheat, maize and sugarcane in BRICS countries by using various linear and non linear models. Secondly, to evaluate the contribution of BRICS countries to global pool. For this, we have discussed various linear and non-linear models such as quadratic, cubic, logarithmic, logistic, Gompertz and monomolecular models. The data for area, production and trade of selected crops for the period 1961 to 2019 have been collected from FAOSTAT. The parameters of the selected models were estimated using Levenberg - Marquardt‟s iterative method of non-linear regression. Based on various performance measures such as R2 , RMSE and MAE, best models were fitted among the selected models. Based on these performance measures, we found that cubic and logistic models followed by Gompertz model were well fitted for area, production and trade as compared to other models. Also, the contribution of BRICS countries in area, production, imports and exports of wheat is 24, 27, 46 and 12 percent respectively. In case of maize, the BRICS contributed 28, 24, 25 and 24 percent in area, production, imports and exports respectively and in case of sugarcane, the contribution of BRICS countries is 48, 49, 29 and 64 percent in area, production, imports and exports respectively.