Trend analysis of area, production and trade of major agricultural crops in BRICS countries
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Date
2022-07-22
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CCSHAU, Hisar
Abstract
The present study was carried out with the objectives: firstly, to identify the trends of
area, production and trade of wheat, maize and sugarcane in BRICS countries by using various
linear and non linear models. Secondly, to evaluate the contribution of BRICS countries to
global pool. For this, we have discussed various linear and non-linear models such as
quadratic, cubic, logarithmic, logistic, Gompertz and monomolecular models. The data for
area, production and trade of selected crops for the period 1961 to 2019 have been collected
from FAOSTAT. The parameters of the selected models were estimated using Levenberg -
Marquardt‟s iterative method of non-linear regression. Based on various performance
measures such as R2
, RMSE and MAE, best models were fitted among the selected models.
Based on these performance measures, we found that cubic and logistic models followed by
Gompertz model were well fitted for area, production and trade as compared to other models.
Also, the contribution of BRICS countries in area, production, imports and exports of wheat is
24, 27, 46 and 12 percent respectively. In case of maize, the BRICS contributed 28, 24, 25 and
24 percent in area, production, imports and exports respectively and in case of sugarcane, the
contribution of BRICS countries is 48, 49, 29 and 64 percent in area, production, imports and
exports respectively.