Loading...
Theses
Browse
4 results
Search Results
ThesisItem Open Access Time series intervention modeling and simulation for mustard yield forecasting in Haryana(CCSHAU,HiSAR, 2020-10) Ajay Kumar; Verma, UrmilModeling and Simulation is a discipline for developing a level of understanding of the interaction of the parts of a system, and of the system as a whole. A model is a simplified representation of a system at some particular point in time or space intended to promote understanding of the real system. Simulation permits the evaluation of operating performance prior to the implementation of a system. The study compares the efficacy of time series Intervention models and simulation in quantifying the pre-harvest mustard yield in Hisar, Bhiwani, Sirsa, Fatehabad, Mahendragarh, Rewari, Jhajjar and Gurugram districts of Haryana. The objective of this study was to assess the forecast accuracy of the contending models for district-level mustard yield forecasts in Haryana. The fortnightly weather data on rainfall, minimum temperature and maximum temperature over the crop growth period (September-October to February-March) have been utilized from 1980-81 to 2010-11 for the models‟ building. The weather-yield data from 2011-12 to 2015-16 have been used to check the post-sample validity of the fitted models for mustard yield forecasts in comparison to those obtained from State Department of Agriculture crop yield(s) estimates. The statistical modeling approaches viz., multiple linear regression, ARIMA, regression with ARIMA errors (RegARIMA) and ARIMA-Intervention were applied for the purpose. First of all, weather-yield models based on multiple linear regression were developed to relate mustard yield to fortnightly weather input alongwith linear time-trend yield/crop condition term as an indicator variable.Alternatively, ARIMA, RegARIMA, and ARIMA-Intervention models were fitted as per targeted objectives. Additionally, Student‟s t-copula in SAS is applied as a simulation tool and compared the output to the time series forecasts. The forecasts are compared to determine if there is either a consistent or significant difference between the two output. The forecast performance(s) of the alternative models were observed in terms of percent relative deviations of mustard yield forecasts from observed yield(s) and root mean square error(s). RegARIMA models performed well with lower error metrics as compared to the alternative models in most of the time regimes. Five-steps ahead forecast figures i.e. 2011-12 to 2015-16 favour the use of RegARIMA models to obtain pre-harvest mustard yield forecasts in the districts under study. The forecasts generated by RegARIMA are remarkably close to the forecasts obtained through the simulation process. Empirical evidence from this study confirms that the RegARIMA model can produce reliable forecasts and would therefore provide a more robust approach of forecasting with limited data sets.using the developed forecast models, the district-level mustard yield estimates could be computed successfully well in advance of the actual harvest. On the other hand, the State Department of Agriculture crop yield estimates are obtained quite late after the actual crop harvest.ThesisItem Open Access Effect Of Stage Of Fruit Maturity At Harvest And Extraction Methods On Quality And Storage Life Of Tomato Seed(Chaudhary Charan Singh Haryana Agricultural University; Hisar, 2000) Ajay Kumar; Malik, Y.S.ThesisItem Open Access Economic analysis of production and marketing of major vegetable crops in Haryana(CCSHAU, 2015) Ajay Kumar; Pannu, R.S.India is the second largest producer of vegetable in the world next to China. The cauliflower, potato, onion, tomato and radish are the major vegetable crops of Haryana. The present investigation was carried out to study the growth rates, cost structure, returns, resource use efficiency, price spread, marketing efficiency and constraints in production and marketing of major vegetables. The study was conducted in Sonipat for cauliflower, Yamunanagar for potato, Ambala for onion, Karnal for tomato and Gurgaon for radish as these vegetables were selected. From each district one tehsil and two villages from each tehsil were selected on the bases of highest area. Samples of 15 farmers from each selected village were selected thereby making a sample of 150 vegetable growers. The vegetable markets of Gurgaon, Karnal, Sonipat, Yamunanagar, Panipat, Panchkula and Ambala were perposively selected as these are near to the main production area. The cauliflower was selected for Sonipat and Panipat markets, potato for Yamunanagar, onion in Ambala and Panchkula, tomato in Karnal and radish in Gurgaon market. Ten intermediaries from each market were selected randomly making a sample of 70 intermediaries. The compound growth rates of area, production and productivity in Haryana have registered significant and positive growth rate in cauliflower, potato, onion, tomato and radish. Productivity has shown positive and significant growth in Haryana for cauliflower, potato and onion. In Sonipat, Karnal and Gurgaon, area and production has shown positive and significant growth in cauliflower, tomato and radish, respectively. In Yamunanagar and Ambala, compound growth rate of area, production and productivity has shown positive and significant growth under potato and onion, respectively. The cost of cultivation of cauliflower, potato, onion, tomato and radish were higher on large farms as compared to medium & small farms. The gross returns were found higher in medium farms as compared to large and small farms. The cost of production per quintal was lower on medium farms and higher on large and small farms indicating that the medium farms were having economies of scale in production. The net income was higher on medium farms as compared to small and large farms in cauliflower, potato, onion, tomato and radish. There was no difference in marketable and marketed surplus because of perishable nature of vegetables and farmers were hard pressed by their cash needs for post-harvest immediate sale. In cauliflower, potato, onion, tomato and radish, channel-I (Producer → Commission agent cum wholesaler →Retailer →Consumer) was more efficient as it ensured higher percent share of farmer in the consumer's rupee as compared to channel-II (Producer → Village trader → Commission agent cum wholesaler →Retailer →Consumer). Major production related constraints expressed by vegetable growers were higher labour charges, unavailability of labour when needed, higher production expenditure, lack of suitable cold storage facilities, high cost of storage, lack of information about high yielding varieties and their seed/planting materials, high cost of seeds, high cost of fertilizers, non-availability of fertilizer when needed, manual weeding is time consuming and labour intensive, less effective and costly weedicides, spurious plant protection chemicals, higher prices of insecticide/pesticides and lack of credit. Major marketing related constraints expressed by vegetable growers were; Marketing problems in village: Low price/non-remunerative prices, no ready market, malpractices in weighing, lack of cooperative marketing system in village and dominance of traders in village. Marketing problems in mandi: Higher price fluctuations, Lack of market information, lack of transportation, high transportation cost, existence of large number of intermediaries in marketing process, higher margin of middlemen, lack of labour for loading and unloading, losses during transportation/transactions, unorganized marketing system. Major constraints in marketing of vegetables faced by middlemen were problem of storage facilities, lack of processing industries/units, higher price fluctuations, problem of drayage and spoilage, high cost of labour, lack of transportation facilities, high transportation cost and delay in payments.ThesisItem Open Access Study On The Shifts In Cropping Pattern In Haryana Using Principal Component And Cluster Analysis(Chaudhary Charan Singh Haryana Agricultural University; Hisar, 2004) Ajay Kumar; Saxena, K.K.
