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2005 - 20066
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Subject: Statistics × End date: 2008 × Start date: 2005 × Thesis Type: M.Sc ×
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Now showing 1 - 6 of 6
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    ThesisItemOpen Access
    Evaluation of fertilizer yield response models
    (CCSHAU, 2006) Suman Kumar; Rajendra Singh
    Judicious use of fertilizer form one of the most important means of stepping up agricultural production. For many cropping situation, especially in developing countries some models do not fit the responses of certain crops to fertilizer. Performance of quadratic, square root, inverse quadratic and modified quadratic response functions have been examined on major food crops grown in Haryana. Based on R2 criterion, inverse quadratic model gives better fit to Pearlmillet crop, where as quadratic function describes the yield-fertilizer relationship in Rice crop. It has been observed that a modified quadratic function is better suited when data shows initial sharp rise at lower levels of fertilizer application. Fertilizer yield data of wheat is often available of many varieties and/or for a numbers of years. Dummy variables have used for combining data for different varieties and over years and for testing structural stability of quadratic response function for three varieties; HD2329,WH542 and WH533 of wheat crop grown in Haryana. Models for individuals varieties have also been deduced from the pooled regression. A comparative study of quadratic, square root, inverse bilinear, and cobb-douglas response models used for the two nutrients experiment. The canonical form is also performed for quadratic and square root models. The characteristic roots of real symmetric matrix of estimates are measured for the coefficients of quadratic and interaction terms. Based on characteristic roots and R2, square root model give better fit for wheat crop.
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    ThesisItemOpen Access
    Evaluation of fertilizer yield response models
    (CCSHAU, 2005) Suman Kumar; Rajendra Singh
    Judicious use of fertilizer form one of the most important means of stepping up agricultural production. For many cropping situation, especially in developing countries some models do not fit the responses of certain crops to fertilizer. v Performance of quadratic, square root, inverse quadratic and modified quadratic response functions have been examined on major food crops grown in Haryana. Based on R2 criterion, inverse quadratic model gives better fit to Pearlmillet crop, where as quadratic function describes the yield-fertilizer relationship in Rice crop. It has been observed that a modified quadratic function is better suited when data shows initial sharp rise at lower levels of fertilizer application. Fertilizer yield data of wheat is often available of many varieties and/or for a numbers of years. Dummy variables have used for combining data for different varieties and over years and for testing structural stability of quadratic response function for three varieties; HD2329,WH542 and WH533 of wheat crop grown in Haryana. Models for individuals varieties have also been deduced from the pooled regression. A comparative study of quadratic, square root, inverse bilinear, and cobb-douglas response models used for the two nutrients experiment. The canonical form is also performed for quadratic and square root models. The characteristic roots of real symmetric matrix of estimates are measured for the coefficients of quadratic and interaction terms. Based on characteristic roots and R2, square root model give better fit for wheat crop.
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    ThesisItemOpen Access
    A study of southwest monsoon daily rainfall at Hisar – An information theory approach
    (CCSHAU, 2005) Gurjeet Kaur; Saxena, K.K.
    In this study, investigations have been carried out for south-west monsoon daily rainfall at Hisar. The daily rainfall data for 79 years (1925-2003) for the period from June to September have been split into 3 phases viz., 1925-1953, 1954-1978 and 1979-2003. These phasewise data have been categorized into 5 states / categories accordingly as non-rainy day (D), light rainy day (W1), moderate rainy day (W2), heavy rainy day (W3) and very heavy rainy day (W4). The transitional probabilities were estimated for all states / categories of occurrence by using Markov chain of order one representing conditional dependence on preceding one day only. The transitional probabilities were estimated by maximum likelihood principle for all the three phases. By using the knowledge of the Shannon’s entropy, the uncertainty (or disorderness) of the transitional system of the south-west monsoon daily rainfall characteristics (such as non-rainy day, light rains, moderate rains, heavy rains and very-heavy rains) have been studied. The favourable or unfavourable condition of different states during the south-west monsoon period at Hisar have also been tested by the redundancy test. It has been found that in the month of June and September the redundancy is more as compared to July and August. For the whole season i.e. June to September, the redundancy test confirms the favourableness of Markov chain of order one at Hisar.
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    ThesisItemOpen Access
    Statistical evaluation of spatio-temporal development in Haryana
    (CCSHAU, 2005) Sangwan, Sangeeta; Manocha, Veena
    The level of development of various districts of Haryana state were estimated separately for agricultural, industrial, infrastructure & services and overall socio-economic sectors with the help of composite index of development based on optimum combination of forty seven development indicators combined in an optimum manner. The study utilized data for different districts over various periods ending triennium 1971-72 (Period I), 1981-82 (Period II), 1991-92 (Period III), and 2001-02 (Period IV). Out of forty seven development indicators, twenty three indicators were directly concerned with agricultural development, four indicators depicted the progress of development in the industrial sector and the rest of twenty indicators presented the level of development in infrastructure & service sector. All the forty seven indicators taken together represent the overall socio-economic development for this study. The variation in the level of development in industrial sector was observed to be of higher order as compared to the variation in agricultural and infrastructural services sector. Positive significant association was observed between the levels of development in agricultural and overall socio- economic development in all the periods of study except the first period. The non significant association was found between agriculture and industry which is not a healthy situation. No significant changes in the level of development were observed between different periods in agricultural, industrial and overall socio-economic sectors. However, a significant change was found in the level of development of infrastructural service sector between the first and fourth, second and fourth and third and fourth periods. The different districts have been classified as highly developed, developed, developing, backward and very backward on the basis of quintiles classification from an assumed Beta distribution of the mean of the indices for all the sectors. For bringing about uniform regional development in the state, model districts for the backward / very backward districts have been identified and the potential targets for various indicators have been estimated. The study revealed that the backward / very backward districts required improvements of various dimensions in almost all the indicators for enhancing their level of development in different sectors.
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    ThesisItemOpen Access
    A population growth model with varying growth rates
    (CCSHAU, 2006) Jatinder Kumar; Gupta, S.C.
    The model of Lewis and Leslie (1945, 1948) has been extensively used for the study of population growth in various fields. However, complex growth structures require the use of more general models. The model of Kapur (1979) allows harvesting in the system is an initial step to move in this direction. But the need is being felt to develop more general models considering the effect of variable growth rates along with harvesting on the reproductive structure of living organisms. In the present work, and age-dependent population growth model is proposed where birth, death and harvest rates are the functions of three population groups viz. pre-reproductive, more-reproductive and less-reproductive. The population structure with varying growth rate has been obtained. The condition for growth, extinction and stability for age-dependent cattle population has been found. Further the model has been illustrated by taking twelve year data on cattle growth. A harvest policy to ensure the stable population structure is also given. The population projections of cattle have been illustrated with tables and graphs.
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    ThesisItemOpen Access
    ARIMA versus trend-agrometeorological wheat yield modelling
    (CCSHAU, 2005) Roy, Ramanath; Verma, Urmil
    Crop yield forecasting is one of the most important aspects of agricultural statistics system. An efficient crop forecasting infrastructure is a pre-requisite for information system about food supply, especially export–import policies, procurement and price-fixation. The present study has been conducted in Hisar, Ambala, Rohtak and Gurgaon districts of Haryana for wheat yield forecasting. The study was broadly categorized into two parts i.e. ARIMA and Trend-agromet wheat yield modelling. The long time-series data for the period 1959-60 to 1999-2000 have been used for fitting ARIMA models. Trend agromet models have been developed on the basis of 1978-79 to 1999-2000 time series data on wheat yield and meteorological data on maximum temperature, minimum temperature and rainfall for the same period in all the districts. Trend yield alongwith average maximum temperature, average minimum temperature and accumulated rainfall integrated over eleven fortnights (Wheat growth period) have been used as regressors in trend-agromet models. ARIMA (0,1,1) for Hisar and Ambala, ARIMA (1,1,1) for Rohtak and ARIMA (1,1,0) for Gurgaon districts have been fitted for yield forecasting of Rabi wheat 2000-01, 01-02, 02-03, 03-04 and 04-05 in all the four districts. The deviation of the predicted yield from the Department of Agriculture and Remote Sensing estimates was very low, favouring the use of ARIMA models for short-term forecasting. Secondly, different trend-agromet models have been developed for wheat yield prediction 2000-01, 01-02, 02-03 and 03-04 in all the four districts. The relative deviation of predicted yield with DOA/RS estimates are within tolerable limits advocating the use of trend-agromet models for obtaining reliable and timely yield forecasts. Finally, the forecasting performances of both the models have been compared. The estimates obtained using both the models are found to be equally good for yield estimation. Realizing the limitation of availability of meteorological data during the crop growth season, it is emphasized that ARIMA models are the best alternative to have pre-harvest forecast yield in the absence of meteorological informations. The ARIMA estimates bear almost equal accuracy as trend-agromet based yield estimates.