Browsing by Author "Arya, S. Nair"
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ArticleItem Open Access Projecting Poultry Population in India – A Time Series Analysis(2020-08) Arya, S. Nair; Thirunavukkarasu, M; Serma Saravana Pandian, A, et al.,; TANUVASTo exploit the potential benefits offered by Indian poultry sub-sector, there is a need to look into the future poultry population. Hence, this study attempted to project the future poultry population using time series analysis. Data on poultry population from 1950-51 to 2016-17 were collected from various reports of Basic Animal Husbandry Statistics (BAHS) and Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and subjected to time series analysis to identify the growth patterns and to project the future. Different projecting models were used and compared. Brown Exponential Smoothing was the best fit model. Using this model, it was found that the projected poultry population would be 887.65, 1123.48, 1359.31, and 1571.56 millions in 2020-21, 2030-31, 2040-41 and 2050-51, respectively.ArticleItem Open Access SMALL RUMINANT POPULATION IN INDIA – A FORECAST FOR THE FUTURE(2021-04) Arya, S. Nair; Thirunavukkarasu, M; Serma Saravana Pandian, A; Senthilkumar, G; Balan, C; TANUVASSmall ruminants continue to assure subsistence by ensuring reasonable livelihood to resource poor farmers of rural India, even when the monsoon fails. A study was made to forecast the small ruminants population in the future by taking into account their past and present growth trends. Data on small ruminants population from 1950-51 to 2016-17 were collected from various reports of Basic Animal Husbandry Statistics (BAHS). Time series forecasting models were employed to identify the growth patterns and to predict the future trends in small ruminants population. Different forecasting models were compared to identify the best fit model using different criteria. From the results, it could be discerned that the Brown Exponential Smoothing model was the best fit model for forecasting sheep population and the forecasted sheep population for the years 2020-21, 2030-31, 2040-41 and 2050-51 which were 65.774, 72.673, 79.572 and 85.782 million, respectively., The sheep population would continue to exhibit positive growth in the future, due to the increasing demand for mutton owing to the increasing per capita incomes and rapid urbanisation. ARIMA (1,1,0) model was found to be the best fit model for forecasting goat population and the forecasted goat population were 139.812, 153.155, 166.401 and 178.321 million during 2020-21, 2030-31, 2040-41 and 2050-51, respectively, which showed that goats will continue to multiply faster due to high market demand.