TREND ANALYSIS OF WHEAT PRICE IN BIHAR AND FORECASTING OF WHEAT PRODUCTIVITY BASED ON BIOMETRICAL CHARACTERS IN SIWAN DISTRICT OF BIHAR
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Date
2021
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DRPCAU, PUSA
Abstract
The present study deals with the forecasting of price of wheat (Triticum aestivum L) in Bihar through Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average ARIMA model for the five year ahead forecasting. Study also deals yield forecasting of wheat in Siwan district of Bihar based on biometrical characters along with farmers appraisal with their socioeconomic condition. For this research for forecasting of price trend analysis with ARIMA model were used. There were found to be ARIMA (0 1 1) is best and it forecast model for wheat price of Bihar is as below equation -1. It were found that its statistic values are R-square=0.944, RMSE= 87.966, MAPE= 6.751, MAE-70.295 and BIC=9.47. It were found that the forecasted price of wheat for the year 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021 and 2022 were Rs.1849.87/q, Rs.1891.98/q, Rs.1970.92/q Rs.2049.86/q and Rs.2128.80/q respectively for Bihar with error percentage 5.84 % for the year 2018. For forecasting of yield of wheat in Siwan district observations on plant biometrical characters were taken, such as average plant population per m2 (X1), average plant height in cm (X2), average number of tillers per m2 (X3), average length of Panicle in cm (X4), application of nitrogen (N) in kg/ha (X5), application of phosphorus (P2O5) in kg/ha (X6), application of potassium (K2O) in kg/ha (X7), irrigation level in numbers (X8), disease infestation in percentage (X9) and average plant condition (X10) according to eye estimates of farmers.There were recorded from data from 50 farmers of Siwan district of Bihar. Multistage (three stage) sampling was used for selecting samples.. The block were first stage unit, village as second stage unit and farmers were third stage unit of selection. All possible regression analyses were carried out to select the best combination of
variables on the basis of some important statistics such as , RMSE= 0.6738, R2 =0.9598, Adj-R2 =0.9568 ,CV= 5.2132,Dependent mean = 5.2132.
Graph of Fit diagnostics for yield, Superimposition of Graph of model predicted value and its residual as well as its actual value , clearly indicate the suitability of model developed.
Further assessment regarding socioeconomic condition of people of Siwan various statistic were used like correlation, mean, regression for assessment of income and employment opportunity in Siwan district of Bihar.
Forecast Model for wheat price in Bihar: -
Zt – Zt-1 = -130.681+ 0.317 (at-1 - at-2) + at ……(1)
Forecast Model for wheat yield in Siwam district of Bihar:
= -3.1602+ 0.0339X5 + 0.0140X7 + 2.5849X10 ……(2)