STUDY ON CROP YIELD RESPONSE TO CLIMATE VARIABILITY IN MUZAFFARPUR DISTRICT OF BIHAR
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Date
2022
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Dr.RPCAU, Pusa
Abstract
In India, a warming trend has become pronounced over the past couple of decades and is predicted to intensify in the years to come. Climate change poses an increasing threat to agricultural production. In order to project the future impact of climate change on crop production, crop models and climate change scenarios have been widely used. While climate change has limited impacts on crop production, some evidence of its impacts has been found. A variety of view points are taken into account when studying the effect of climate change in different parts of the country. According to the study, agriculture is more affected than any other sector in the country. Over the past few years, numerous studies have been conducted to illustrate the fact that annual temperature changes, changes in relative humidity, changes in evaporation, and changes in rainfall patterns have all become more evident on a global scale.
Different statistical methods are used to examine the effects of climatic factors, such as Temperature (Maximum and Minimum), Rainfall, and Evapotranspiration variation on wheat and rice yields in Muzaffarpur district of Bihar. Data on wheat and rice was obtained from ICRISAT Hyderabad for period 52 years (1966-2017) and data on weather variables were obtained from Centre for Advanced Studies on Climate Change, RPCAU, Pusa. Annual data on weather variable was obtained from ICRISAT Hyderabad for time period 1958-2015. In
this study, investigation of significant trends in climate variables over period of time was done for Muzaffarpur district. Trend was detected using non-parametric (Mann-Kendall) trend test. Theil Sen's slope estimator was used to determine the magnitude of the trend, and percentage change in various variables was calculated. Detection of shift in weather variables was found out using change point analysis (Pettitt test).
Positive trends were observed in maximum and minimum temperature, Evapo-transpiration. Negative trend in rainfall. Weather variables showed significant change point at 1992 (Maximum temperature), 1987 (minimum temperature), 1988 (Rainfall), and non-significant change was detected in Evapo-transpiration (1991).
The effect of weather variable on yield of Wheat and Rice analysed by multiple linear regression. Model explained 24.3 % and 2.9 % of variability in wheat and rice respectively.