Performance of wheat cultivars under present and futuristic climatic conditions using crop simulation model in central Punjab

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dc.contributor.advisorGill, K.K.
dc.contributor.authorDivya
dc.date.accessioned2018-05-27T05:31:40Z
dc.date.available2018-05-27T05:31:40Z
dc.date.issued2018
dc.description.abstractA study was planned to assess the performance of three wheat cultivars under present and futuristic climatic conditions using DSSAT model. For the study, three wheat cultivars- HD 2967, WH 1105 and PBW 590 under different sowings 25th October, 15th November and 05th December were taken. The performance of these cultivars was assessed for observed period (1970-2015), MC (2020-50) and EC (2060-90) period. The future data was taken from GCM model under two RCP scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Among the best five models performed well, HADGEM2 model showed the future data close to the observed period. The biasness in the modelled data was removed using linear scaling method. Following all the inputs in management file to run DSSAT model as per PAU package of practices (2016-17) except the irrigation, which was scheduled based on IW/CPE 1.0. The results showed that the mean temperature would increase by 1.4°C during MC and 2.9°C during EC under RCP 4.5 while under RCP 8.5, there would be increase in mean temperature by 1.4°C during MC and 4.1°C during EC. In case of rainfall, under RCP 4.5, there would be increase in rainfall by 29% during MC and 24% during EC but under RCP 8.5, the rainfall would increase 16% during MC and 34% during EC from the observed period. Due to increase in temperature and rainfall both during MC and EC, the phenology of the three wheat cultivars would change which indirectly affect the yield. Under RCP 4.5 during MC, the days to maturity advances by 9, 7 and 4 days for HD 2967, WH 1105 and PBW 590 while during EC, the days would advances by 15, 10 and 7 days. Similarly, under RCP 8.5, during MC the days to physiological maturity would advance by 8, 6 and 3 days for HD 2967, WH 1105 and PBW 590 whereas during EC, the days would advance by 21, 14 and 11 days. The average yield of WH 1105 was 6017 kg/ha, highest than the other two cultivars during the observed period and its irrigation requirement was also the lowest. While during MC under RCP 4.5, the irrigation requirement was equal for both HD 2967 and WH 1105 but the average yield of 4666 kg/ha was highest for HD 2967 but lowest for PBW 590. During EC, WH 1105 showed the highest average yield of 4989 kg/ha and also its irrigation requirement would be less than HD 2967. Under RCP 8.5, during MC the highest yield of 4715 kg/ha observed for WH 1105 with less irrigation requirement. During EC, WH 1105 showed the highest average yield than other cultivars with equal irrigation demand. So, it would be beneficial to grow November sown cv. WH 1105 during the future period for getting better yield.en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://krishikosh.egranth.ac.in/handle/1/5810047774
dc.keywordsClimate change, HADGEM2-ES, Future pan Evaporation, Future irrigation schedulingen_US
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.pages57en_US
dc.publisherPunjab Agricultural University, Ludhianaen_US
dc.research.problemPerformance of wheat cultivars under present and futuristic climatic conditions using crop simulation model in central Punjaben_US
dc.subAgricultural Meteorologyen_US
dc.subjectnullen_US
dc.themePerformance of wheat cultivars under present and futuristic climatic conditions using crop simulation model in central Punjaben_US
dc.these.typeM.Scen_US
dc.titlePerformance of wheat cultivars under present and futuristic climatic conditions using crop simulation model in central Punjaben_US
dc.typeThesisen_US
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