Identification of heat and cold wave period and its effect on cotton-wheat yield in south-west Punjab using geospatial technology
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Date
2023
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Punjab Agricultural University
Abstract
The present study focused on Bathinda district in extreme South-West Punjab, analyzing a 23-year span (2000-2022) of heat and cold wave occurrences. Noteworthy heat wave years were (2000, 2010 and 2022), displayed a pattern of rising instances followed by fluctuations and decline while severe heat waves exhibited sporadic variations. Concentrated heat waves were observed during wheat growing seasons (March-April), while cotton faced higher frequencies during May-June. Cold wave instances showed decreasing trend consistently, with prominent years (2008, 2005, 2012) marked by heightened occurrences. Notably, yield simulations using CERES-wheat and CROPGRO-cotton models accurately matched observed yields, demonstrating predictive potential (wheat: R2=0.72, RMSE=336.5, d-stat=0.90; cotton: R2=0.67, RMSE=407.1, d-stat=0.84).The observed associations between Land Surface Temperature (LST) and air temperature during heat waves (R2=0.80), as well as the negative correlations between LST and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) (R2=0.69) during the same periods. On the other hand, the relationships established between LST and minimum air temperature during cold waves (R2=0.49), as well as between LST and NDVI (R2=0.14) during cold wave periods. Six wheat growing and five cotton growing period showcased below-normal yields and prominent heat wave occurrences, confirmed by a significant correlation (R2=0.71 and R2=0.78) between their yield and NDVI. Three years experienced below-normal wheat yields during cold wave events surpassing the normal threshold. The implications of these findings extend to projections (2023-2050), predicting potential wheat yield losses due to heightened heat wave occurrences and reduced yields stemming from intensified cold wave days as well as cotton yield due to increased heat waves. This study provides a comprehensive exploration of the intricate relationship between heat and cold wave occurrences and their profound influence on cotton and wheat yields, augmented by a visionary glimpse into potential future scenarios, thereby illuminating the challenges that lie ahead for South-West Punjab's agricultural landscape.
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Gawai, Anjusha Sanjay (2023). Identification of heat and cold wave period and its effect on cotton-wheat yield in south-west Punjab using geospatial technology (Unpublished M.Sc. thesis). Punjab Agricultural University, Ludhiana, Punjab, India.