Statistical analysis of fertility through simultaneous equation model in Haryana
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Date
2008
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Publisher
CCSHAU
Abstract
In today’s scenario to know the fertility pattern is very important
as the population is rising rapidly. It is important to use appropriate
statistical techniques for their estimation. Single-equation model of
fertility behaviour are subject to specification error and often fail to
capture the dynamic properties of the model. But the variable considered
have two–way causation, thus Simultaneous Equation Model should be
used. An attempt has been made by postulating the four equations
simultaneous equation model for explaining the fertility pattern in
Haryana. This model consists of Fertility Equation, Female Participation
Equation, Income Equation and Education equation. Identification was
done for examining the efficient method of estimation. All four equations
were found to be over–identified.
After identification two–stage least squares method of estimation
was used for the estimation of regression coefficients. Estimates were
compared for OLS as well as for 2SLS in terms of regression coefficient
estimates, standard error of estimates, coefficient of multiple
determination (R2) and Durbin–Watson test statistic value. Residual
analysis was also performed to find out outliers and for establishing the
presence of autocorrelation. There was no outlier while indication found
for the presence of outliers. By Durbin–Watson statistic it was found that
there was no autocorrelation between the successive terms of the
residuals of four different endogenous variables. The data of Haryana
State for 42 years was splitted into three parts viz. 1966-2007,
1966-1986 and 1987-2007 for examining the time patterns in fertility.
Then estimates obtained through OLS method has been compared
for three different time periods and also the estimates obtained through
2SLS method has been compared for three different time periods. Then
the comparison was made between the estimates obtained through OLS
and 2SLS for different time periods. It has been found that infant
mortality rate, female literacy rate, female work participation rate has
statistically high significant effect on fertility.
On comparison, it was found that 2SLS method gives consistent
and efficient estimates of regression coefficients as compared to OLS
method.
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Keywords
Fertilizers, Manpower, Participation, Economics, Biological phenomena, Marketing, Land resources, Byproducts, Sexual reproduction, Sampling