PRICE BEHAVIOUR OF RAPESEED-MUSTARD IN MEHSANA DISTRICT OF GUJARAT STATE
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Date
1995
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AAU, Anand
Abstract
The present investigation was carried out to study instability in prices and production of rapeseed-mustard, inter and intra-year behaviour in prices, price integration, marketing pattern of arrivals of rapeseed-mustard in the selected markets of Mehsana district. An attempt was also made in the present study to identify the various price and nonprice variables associated with present area allocation of rapeseed-mustard in the district. The study is centred in six selected markets of Mehsana district viz., three primary wholesale markets of Visnagar, Chanasma and Sidhpur and three secondary wholesale markets of Unjha, Patan and Mehsana. The study pertains to time series data from 1975-76 to 1992-93. Instability index was used to measure the instability in prices and production of rapeseedmustard. Inter-year price behaviour was studied through scattered diagrams and through various regression models viz., linear, quadratic and exponential. To study intra-year price behaviour in rapeseed-mustard price a multiplicative model of time series analysis was employed. The simple correlation coefficient approach as well as Koyck's distributed lag model were used to examine market integration among the spatially located markets. For studying pattern of rapeseed-mustard arrivals and prices, the marketing year was divided into peak (March to June), mid (July to October) and lean (November to February) seasons. Nerlovian model was used to identify (price/non-price) variables associated with present acreage allocation of rapeseed-mustard in the district. Among the selected markets, the wholesale as well as farm-harvest prices recorded a higher instability index ranging from 15 to 20. As compared to price instability, production instability index ranged from 27 in Banaskantha to 58 in Sabarkantha district. This resulted into more fluctuations in the income level of rapeseed-mustard growers in the district. Wholesale as well as farm-harvest prices of rapeseedmustard continued to increase over time, with few exceptions. Gross increase in the prices during two selected trienniums was in the range of 202 to 308 per cent for wholesale and 150 to 257 per cent for farm-harvest prices. The compound rate of increase in case of both prices ranged between 7 to 9 per cent per annum in the selected markets/districts. Thus, no marked variations in inter-year price behaviour of rapeseed-mustard was noticed across the markets during the study period. Prices of rapeseed-mustard in the selected markets followed the normal seasonal pattern. In majority of markets lower seasonal price indices (88 to 91) were there in the harvesting month of March and highest (around 107) in sowing season months of November-December. Among the selected markets, the Average Seasonal Price Variations (ASPV) as well as coefficient of variation (%) for seasonal price indices were highest in Mehsana market and lower in Patan and Sidhpur markets. Rapesed-mustard markets located at varied distances have registered higher correlation coefficient (clustering around 0,98) and as such they were well integrated with respect to price movement. Majority of market pairs showed negative price differences in more number of months indicating thereby that movement of produce from primary to secondary wholesale market was not profitable. However, current prices of primary market (Pi, t) were significantly influenced by their lagged month's prices (Pi, t-1) of same market as well as by the prices of their corresponding secondary wholesale market (Pj, t). About 40 to 75 per cent of total market arrivals of rapeseed-mustard was reported in the peak marketing season in the selected markets. In this season prices were lower by Rs. 20 to Rs. 60 per quintal over mid and lean marketing seasons. Monthly arrivals and prices of rapeseed-mustard in the corresponding as well as in the subsequent months were negative and significant in all the markets. Among the price and non-price variables included in the acreage response model, only lagged year harvest price of rapeseed-mustard exhibited positive and significant influence on present acreage allocation under rapeseed-mustard in Mehsana district of Gujarat state.
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Keywords
AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS, AGRICULTURE, A STUDY