TREND ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING OF CHICKPEA YIELD IN MUNGER DISTRICT (BIHAR) AND BILASPUR DISTRICT (CHHATTISGARH) USING NON LINEAR MODELS
Loading...
Date
2022
Authors
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
DRPCAU, PUSA
Abstract
This study is done with objective of trend analysis of area, production and productivity of chickpea for Munger district (Bihar) and Bilaspur district (Chhattisgarh) and forecast is done on chickpea yield for these districts using some nonlinear models. For conducting this study, secondary time series data is obtained from official sites of directorate of Economics and Statistics of respective states and ICRISAT Hyderabad from time period of 1990-91 to 2019-20. For achieving objective, data from 1990-91 to 2018-19 are analysed while for validation, data from year 2019-20 is taken.
The graphical method is used for trend analysis for area, production and yield under chickpea. Validation of trend is checked using correlation test by Pearson and Spearman test. Forecasting of chickpea yield is done with non linear model i.e., Monomolecular, Gompertz and Logistic model and OSAF is used for validation.
Although, over the time there was too much fluctuation in actual data of area, production and productivity of chickpea over all it is found decreasing for area as well as production while increasing trend for productivity for Munger district as well as for Bilaspur district. Even Pearson and Spearman coefficients are highly significant with negative values for area and production while positive values for productivity.
All non-linear models are fitted to data by using Statistical software R. After fitting non-linear models, models are compared by ten different statistics R2, R27 , R28 , RSS, MAPE, MAE, MSE, RMSE, RSE and MSE. nn. So, Logistic model is found better for forecasting chickpea yield for Munger district with FE% of 22 % and Gompertz is found better for Bilaspur district with FE% of 22.3 % than other two models.
Selected models for Munger district (Bihar) and Bilaspur district (Chhattisgarh) are given by
Ŷ =1.16982/ (1 +(1.16982/0.60629-1) *exp(-0.10993*t)) (Munger district)
Ŷ =1.12087*exp(log(0.44693/1.12087)*exp(-0.0532*t)) (Bilaspur district)