production dynamics of food grains in Bihar under temporal framework
Loading...
![Thumbnail Image](assets/images/Item.jpg)
Date
2022
Authors
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
DRPCAU, PUSA
Abstract
Using secondary data from 1991–1992 to 2020–2021 and a variety of
statistical methodologies, the study calculated the growth rate, instability index, and
decomposition analysis of area, production, and yield of foodgrains in Bihar and
India. Area under foodgrains was showing negative growth rate in every decade.
Production was showing increasing growth rate in first and third decade but in second
decade production of foodgrain was showing negative growth rate. Yield of
foodgrains was showing positive growth rate in every decade which was the main
source of growth in production. Cereals were following the similar trend as of
foodgrains. For pulses scenario was somewhat different. Pulse area as well as
production was showing negative growth rate in every decade but its yield was
showing positive growth rate in first two decade and negative growth rate in last
decade. In cereals, area of rice was showing negative growth rate in all the decade but
production and yield was showing positive growth rate in first and third decade and
negative growth rate in second decade. Area under maize was showing negative
growth rate in every decade except in second decade where it was found positive
growth rate. Production of maize was showing positive growth rate in all the decades
though its yield was also showing positive growth rate in first and third decade and
negative growth rate in second decade. Highest instability in area of foodgrains was
observed in first decade but production and yield of foodgrains was showing highest
instability in second decade. Production of food crops was showing highest instability
during the overall study period. Yield effects of crops were contributing more than
area effect in increasing foodgrains production. Net cropped area and gross cropped
area in Bihar was following decreasing trend due to a decrease in cultivable area. Due
to more intensive cultivation, the cropping intensity in Bihar has increased from 138%
in2001-02 to 143% in 2018-19.From 2001–2002 to 2018–19, the yield of every crop
under investigation increased. The area, production, and yield of foodgrains were
predicted using the ARIMA model. The autoregressive (p) and moving average (q)
parameters were identified based on significant spike in plot of (PACF) and (ACF) of
various time series model. Forecasting was attempted for the years up to 2025–2026.
ARIMA (2,1,1) was found the best fit model for area, production and yield of total
foodgrains and cereals. This model had forecasted that area under foodgrain
production would decrease in coming years but production and yield would increase.
Similar pattern was observed in cereals also. For forecasting the area of pulses
ARIMA (1,1,1) was found the best fit model. It was found that in the upcoming years,
the area under pulses will diminish. Same ARIMA (1,1,1) was used for forecasting
the production of pulses but it had revealed that pulses production would increase for
a year and after that it would further decrease. For yield of pulses ARIMA (1,0,1) was
found the suitable model and it had forecasted that yield of pulses would decrease in
coming years. In light of the study's findings, It has been suggested that more
effective production methods be used, fallow land be used for the production of
pulses, short-duration varieties may be encouraged, and focused efforts from various
line departments be made in order to ensure that Bihar is both food and nutritionally
secure.