FORECASTING OF COCONUT YIELD AND PERFORMANCE OF KISAN CREDIT CARD SCHEME IN MALAPPURAM DISTRICT OF KERALA
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Date
2023
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RPCAU, Pusa
Abstract
The current study entitled with “Forecasting of Coconut Yield and Performance of Kisan Credit Card Scheme in Malappuram district of Kerala” is based on the objectives of analyzing the coconut cultivation in Malappuram district of Kerala, Forecast coconut yield using nonlinear growth models for the district and assess the effect of KCC scheme for coconut growers of the same district. The trend analysis and forecast relies on secondary time series data of coconut, which is obtained from Kerala State Economics and Statistics Department and Coconut Development Board. The time series data spans from 1971-72 to 2020-21. The data from 1971-72 to 2015-16 is used for forecasting while the data from the year 2016-17 to 2020-21 is used for the validation process. For the assessment of KCC scheme, primary data collected from the beneficiaries is used.
Graphical method is employed to analyze the trend. The result indicates that the trend of coconut area, production, and productivity in Malappuram district of Kerala is increasing. The accuracy of the trend analysis was done using the coefficient of determination values. Compound Annual Growth Rates were also calculated and it also found positive.
Monomolecular, Logistic, and Gompertz models were utilized to forecast the coconut yield and the data is fitted using R software. A comparison of models using ten different statistics, including R^2, R_7^2, R_8^2, RSS, MAPE, MAE, MSE, RMSE, RSE and MSE.nn was conducted and Monomolecular model found to be the better model for forecasting coconut yield in Malappuram district. Selected model for the coconut yield in Malappuram district is given by
Y ̂=2.817738-(2.817738-3.810496)×exp(0.043186×t)
Kisan Credit Card scheme emerged as an innovative means of delivering credit to meet the production related needs of the farmers ensuring timely and sufficient manner. The primary data were collected from 50 KCC beneficiary coconut farmers from Malappuram district. The collected data were interpreted using frequency tables and percentage analysis. Beneficiaries found KCC loan availability relatively easier compared to other loan processes. 86% of the beneficiaries obtained loans up to maximum limit, 94% used funds for their intended purpose and 78% repaid the loan amount using the intended earnings. Overall, the KCC scheme positively influenced farming practices, leading to increased yield and income.