PRICE BEHAVIOUR OF CHILLI IN MAJOR MARKETS OF KARNATAKA: AN ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
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Date
2017-09-30
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UNIVERSITY OF AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES, RAICHUR
Abstract
The present study is to analyze the relationship between the arrivals, prevailing price, future price and forecasted price chilli markets in Karnataka. The study is based on both primary and secondary data from the selected four markets which are selected based on the highest arrivals registered. In order to forecast the price ARIMA model is used to forecast the price of selected markets. To analyze the relationship correlation analysis was employed between the variables. The correlation relationship between the arrivals and price was medium. Even same results were found in between the prevailing price and forecasted price, prevailing price and future prices. Multiple regression analysis was fitted to know the factors which are responsible for variation in arrivals in selected markets. Four predictors were used, namely price, lagged price for one, two and three were taken. The results revealed that up to 19% of the variation is contributed by the predictors. Even correlation analysis was employed in between the arrivals and prevailing market price at different periods like pre, post and peak harvest period. Results showed that the correlation between them was found to be highest in post-harvest period and followed by peak harvest and low in pre-harvest period. Co-integration model was employed to know the co-integration between the NCDEX future price and prevailing price but the results were not satisfactory. The influence of future prices on selected chili markets was poor. But when it comes to chilli markets the co-integration between them were positive. Influences of price of one market on the other markets were positive and lagged price of markets influenced on one other. From the study we can conclude that selected markets were integrated hence the price of chilli is more or less same in all the market except external charges. The price of chilli is highly correlated in post harvest period so farmers were suggested to sell their product during the post harvest period to fetch high price.
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