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Kerala Agricultural University, Thrissur

The history of agricultural education in Kerala can be traced back to the year 1896 when a scheme was evolved in the erstwhile Travancore State to train a few young men in scientific agriculture at the Demonstration Farm, Karamana, Thiruvananthapuram, presently, the Cropping Systems Research Centre under Kerala Agricultural University. Agriculture was introduced as an optional subject in the middle school classes in the State in 1922 when an Agricultural Middle School was started at Aluva, Ernakulam District. The popularity and usefulness of this school led to the starting of similar institutions at Kottarakkara and Konni in 1928 and 1931 respectively. Agriculture was later introduced as an optional subject for Intermediate Course in 1953. In 1955, the erstwhile Government of Travancore-Cochin started the Agricultural College and Research Institute at Vellayani, Thiruvananthapuram and the College of Veterinary and Animal Sciences at Mannuthy, Thrissur for imparting higher education in agricultural and veterinary sciences, respectively. These institutions were brought under the direct administrative control of the Department of Agriculture and the Department of Animal Husbandry, respectively. With the formation of Kerala State in 1956, these two colleges were affiliated to the University of Kerala. The post-graduate programmes leading to M.Sc. (Ag), M.V.Sc. and Ph.D. degrees were started in 1961, 1962 and 1965 respectively. On the recommendation of the Second National Education Commission (1964-66) headed by Dr. D.S. Kothari, the then Chairman of the University Grants Commission, one Agricultural University in each State was established. The State Agricultural Universities (SAUs) were established in India as an integral part of the National Agricultural Research System to give the much needed impetus to Agriculture Education and Research in the Country. As a result the Kerala Agricultural University (KAU) was established on 24th February 1971 by virtue of the Act 33 of 1971 and started functioning on 1st February 1972. The Kerala Agricultural University is the 15th in the series of the SAUs. In accordance with the provisions of KAU Act of 1971, the Agricultural College and Research Institute at Vellayani, and the College of Veterinary and Animal Sciences, Mannuthy, were brought under the Kerala Agricultural University. In addition, twenty one agricultural and animal husbandry research stations were also transferred to the KAU for taking up research and extension programmes on various crops, animals, birds, etc. During 2011, Kerala Agricultural University was trifurcated into Kerala Veterinary and Animal Sciences University (KVASU), Kerala University of Fisheries and Ocean Studies (KUFOS) and Kerala Agricultural University (KAU). Now the University has seven colleges (four Agriculture, one Agricultural Engineering, one Forestry, one Co-operation Banking & Management), six RARSs, seven KVKs, 15 Research Stations and 16 Research and Extension Units under the faculties of Agriculture, Agricultural Engineering and Forestry. In addition, one Academy on Climate Change Adaptation and one Institute of Agricultural Technology offering M.Sc. (Integrated) Climate Change Adaptation and Diploma in Agricultural Sciences respectively are also functioning in Kerala Agricultural University.

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Subject: Agricultural Statistics × Start date: 2013 × Type: Thesis × Thesis Type: M.Sc ×
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    ThesisItemOpen Access
    Price forecast models for coconut and coconut oil
    (College of Horticulture, Vellanikkara, 2016) Indraji, K N; KAU; Laly, John C
    The study on “Price forecast models for coconut and coconut oil” was conducted to estimate seasonal variations in prices of coconut oil, copra and coconut, to evaluate different time series forecast models for prices of coconut oil, copra and coconut and to suggest suitable forecast models for Alappuzha, Kochi and Kozhikode markets. Time series data on monthly average prices of coconut oil and copra for Alappuzha, Kochi and Kozhikode markets from January 1990 to December 2015 and for coconut price at Alappuzha market from January 1998 to December 2015 were collected from Coconut Development Board (CDB), Kochi formed the database.Analysis of price pattern revealed that wide fluctuation exists in the prices of coconut oil and copra at Alappuzha, Kochi and Kozhikode markets and price of coconut at Alappuzha market. For coconut oil and copra price, the coefficient of variation was around 50 per cent indicating the instability in prices and a coefficient of variation of 37 per cent for coconut price showed that variability in price is lower than that of coconut oil and copra. Seasonal indices for the 12 months from January to December showed that December is the peak price month for coconut oil at Alappuzha and Kozhikode markets, whereas it is in January at Kochi. Lowest price is observed in May at Alappuzha and Kozhikode market, whereas, at Kochi it is in July. In all the three markets, September – February is the buoyant phase and price depression is during March - August. For copra, peak price is in December at Alappuzha and Kochi markets, whereas, it is in November at Kozhikode. Trough price for copra is in May in all the three markets. October to February is favourable for copra price in all the three markets, whereas, depressed phase is from March to September. For coconut, peak price at Alappuzha market is in December and the buoyant phase is from November to February. April is the low price month with depressed phase from March to October. During the summer months from March to May, harvest the coconuts as tender and increase the production of neera. Also, during March- September, where the price of coconut oil and copra is low, steps are to be taken to convert coconut into other value added products like desiccated coconut powder, virgin coconut oil, activated carbon etc. and to identify regular markets in major cities of India as also outside India. Different forecast models were fitted viz., Auto regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and exponential smoothing models (single, double, Holt-Winters’ additive and multiplicative) were fitted and compared for prices of coconut, coconut oil and copra in different market. Holt-Winters’ Multiplicative Seasonal (HWMS) model is the appropriate forecast model for price of coconut oil at Alappuzha and Kochi markets. At Kozhikode market, SARIMA(1,1,1)(1,0,1)12 and HWMS can be used. HWMS model is selected as the suitable forecast model for copra at all markets. ARIMA (0,1,1) model is suitable for forecasting price of coconut at Alappuzha market