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Kerala Agricultural University, Thrissur

The history of agricultural education in Kerala can be traced back to the year 1896 when a scheme was evolved in the erstwhile Travancore State to train a few young men in scientific agriculture at the Demonstration Farm, Karamana, Thiruvananthapuram, presently, the Cropping Systems Research Centre under Kerala Agricultural University. Agriculture was introduced as an optional subject in the middle school classes in the State in 1922 when an Agricultural Middle School was started at Aluva, Ernakulam District. The popularity and usefulness of this school led to the starting of similar institutions at Kottarakkara and Konni in 1928 and 1931 respectively. Agriculture was later introduced as an optional subject for Intermediate Course in 1953. In 1955, the erstwhile Government of Travancore-Cochin started the Agricultural College and Research Institute at Vellayani, Thiruvananthapuram and the College of Veterinary and Animal Sciences at Mannuthy, Thrissur for imparting higher education in agricultural and veterinary sciences, respectively. These institutions were brought under the direct administrative control of the Department of Agriculture and the Department of Animal Husbandry, respectively. With the formation of Kerala State in 1956, these two colleges were affiliated to the University of Kerala. The post-graduate programmes leading to M.Sc. (Ag), M.V.Sc. and Ph.D. degrees were started in 1961, 1962 and 1965 respectively. On the recommendation of the Second National Education Commission (1964-66) headed by Dr. D.S. Kothari, the then Chairman of the University Grants Commission, one Agricultural University in each State was established. The State Agricultural Universities (SAUs) were established in India as an integral part of the National Agricultural Research System to give the much needed impetus to Agriculture Education and Research in the Country. As a result the Kerala Agricultural University (KAU) was established on 24th February 1971 by virtue of the Act 33 of 1971 and started functioning on 1st February 1972. The Kerala Agricultural University is the 15th in the series of the SAUs. In accordance with the provisions of KAU Act of 1971, the Agricultural College and Research Institute at Vellayani, and the College of Veterinary and Animal Sciences, Mannuthy, were brought under the Kerala Agricultural University. In addition, twenty one agricultural and animal husbandry research stations were also transferred to the KAU for taking up research and extension programmes on various crops, animals, birds, etc. During 2011, Kerala Agricultural University was trifurcated into Kerala Veterinary and Animal Sciences University (KVASU), Kerala University of Fisheries and Ocean Studies (KUFOS) and Kerala Agricultural University (KAU). Now the University has seven colleges (four Agriculture, one Agricultural Engineering, one Forestry, one Co-operation Banking & Management), six RARSs, seven KVKs, 15 Research Stations and 16 Research and Extension Units under the faculties of Agriculture, Agricultural Engineering and Forestry. In addition, one Academy on Climate Change Adaptation and one Institute of Agricultural Technology offering M.Sc. (Integrated) Climate Change Adaptation and Diploma in Agricultural Sciences respectively are also functioning in Kerala Agricultural University.

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Subject: Agricultural Business Management × Author: KAU × End date: 2009 × Start date: 2009 ×
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    ThesisItemOpen Access
    Forecasting volatility of the indian stock market
    (Department of Rural Banking and Finance Management, College of Co-operation, Banking and Management, Vellanikkara, 2009) Khadilkar Guruprasad, Hari; KAU; Molly, Joseph
    The present study on ‘forecasting volatility of the Indian stock market’ was conducted with the main objectives of examining the volatility behaviour of the Indian stock market, to forecast the sector- wise volatility of the Indian stock market and to identify the most efficient volatility forecasting model among the different models used. For the study the biggest stock market in India in terms of total turnover and volume of transactions, ie, National Stock Exchange was selected. For analyzing the volatility behaviour of the Indian stock market as a whole, S&P CNX Nifty index was taken. Five companies representing five different sectors were selected for forecasting sector – wise volatility. The study used secondary data on daily close prices of individual stocks from November 1994 to October 2008, and for Nifty, daily close values, from November 1995 to October 2008 from the website of National Stock Exchange, www.nseindia.com. The study revealed presence of strong volatility in the Indian stock market. The histogram drawn for the volatility of all samples showed that the distribution of volatility was not normal. There was positive skewness and all the distribution of volatility was leptokurtic. This proved the presence of high peak values (squared returns) in the sample data, exposing the evidence of volatility clustering and the possibility for prediction of future volatility. While analysing sector -wise volatility, the diversified sector represented by Reliance Industries Limited showed the highest volatility compared to that of Nifty and the other sectors. In other words, Reliance is the most volatile stock among the samples selected for the study. Reliance and Infosys had good predictability of volatility in the stock market. The best identified model for forecasting the volatility of stock markets is the EWMA. Then comes AR (1) followed by MA (3), RWM and HMM. Random walk model was found suitable for the prediction of volatility of two sectors - IT (Infosys) and engineering heavy (BHEL) only. But the MAPE values of these were high. Historic mean model could not predict the volatility in the stock market with precision, for the index as well as for any of the five companies. Out of three, six, nine and twelve monthly moving averages taken for predicting the volatility three months moving average was found most suitable for all the samples. Prediction of volatility using the most efficient model of EWMA identified indicated decreasing trend of volatility for the next six months, except for Infosys. The confidence limits for the Nifty and the stocks of five companies based on volatility for the sample period found that for Infosys the distribution of volatilities for the out of sample period are coming within the prefixed UCL and LCL and it ensures that the volatility is under control and predictable with high degree of precision. The ever increasing market segments, advancement of technology, widening market reach and multi dimensions of stock market provide ample scope for further research in this area to the advantage of the investors and other market participants.