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Assam Agricultural University, Jorhat

Assam Agricultural University is the first institution of its kind in the whole of North-Eastern Region of India. The main goal of this institution is to produce globally competitive human resources in farm sectorand to carry out research in both conventional and frontier areas for production optimization as well as to disseminate the generated technologies as public good for benefitting the food growers/produces and traders involved in the sector while emphasizing on sustainability, equity and overall food security at household level. Genesis of AAU - The embryo of the agricultural research in the state of Assam was formed as early as 1897 with the establishment of the Upper Shillong Experimental Farm (now in Meghalaya) just after about a decade of creation of the agricultural department in 1882. However, the seeds of agricultural research in today’s Assam were sown in the dawn of the twentieth century with the establishment of two Rice Experimental Stations, one at Karimganj in Barak valley in 1913 and the other at Titabor in Brahmaputra valley in 1923. Subsequent to these research stations, a number of research stations were established to conduct research on important crops, more specifically, jute, pulses, oilseeds etc. The Assam Agricultural University was established on April 1, 1969 under The Assam Agricultural University Act, 1968’ with the mandate of imparting farm education, conduct research in agriculture and allied sciences and to effectively disseminate technologies so generated. Before establishment of the University, there were altogether 17 research schemes/projects in the state under the Department of Agriculture. By July 1973, all the research projects and 10 experimental farms were transferred by the Government of Assam to the AAU which already inherited the College of Agriculture and its farm at Barbheta, Jorhat and College of Veterinary Sciences at Khanapara, Guwahati. Subsequently, College of Community Science at Jorhat (1969), College of Fisheries at Raha (1988), Biswanath College of Agriculture at Biswanath Chariali (1988) and Lakhimpur College of Veterinary Science at Joyhing, North Lakhimpur (1988) were established. Presently, the University has three more colleges under its jurisdiction, viz., Sarat Chandra Singha College of Agriculture, Chapar, College of Horticulture, Nalbari & College of Sericulture, Titabar. Similarly, few more regional research stations at Shillongani, Diphu, Gossaigaon, Lakhimpur; and commodity research stations at Kahikuchi, Buralikson, Tinsukia, Kharua, Burnihat and Mandira were added to generate location and crop specific agricultural production packages.

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Subject: Agricultural Statistics and Informatics × End date: 2019 × Start date: 2016 × Type: Thesis × Thesis Type: Ph.D ×
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    ThesisItemOpen Access
    FORECASTING MODELS FOR CHARACTERIZING PRODUCTION AND PRODUCTIVITY OF COCONUT AND RUBBER IN KERALA
    (AAU, Jorhat, 2016-07) Prasad, Arun; Phukan, S. N.
    India is the third largest country in terms of global area and production of coconut after Philippines and Indonesia. Kerala was traditionally a coconut growing area along with the coastal states of Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh. During 1974-75 Kerala had accounted for about 62 per cent of the coconut production in India and by 2003-04 Kerala’s share had declined to about 49 per cent. Natural Rubber cultivation in India has been traditionally concentrated in Kerala and to some extent in the adjoining states of Karnataka and Tamil Nadu. The agro-climatic conditions in the state were very favourable for rubber cultivation. Kerala accounts for 83 per cent of the area under rubber in the country. The present study has analyzed the production and productivity of coconut and rubber in India with special reference to Kerala. In the case of Kerala, all the fourteen districts have been selected for making a detailed study. The scope of the study is limited to only two places – Coconut Development Board, Kochi for coconut and Rubber Development Board, Kottayam for rubber. For forecasting the production and productivity of coconut and rubber, the study is restricted to fourteen districts in Kerala. In the present investigation of production and productivity behavior for coconut and rubber was analyzed by different forecasting models and their statistical evaluation would provide insight into the reasons for variation with the following objectives: 1. To study the trend for production and productivity of coconut and rubber in Kerala and forecast using time series models. 2. To study the effect of error in forecasting models for coconut and rubber. 3. To validate accuracy of model and suggest suitable forecasting model using time series for production and productivity of coconut and rubber. The major purpose of studies on forecast accuracy is to help the forecasters in selecting best forecasting method. In the present investigation different forecasting models like Trend analysis, ANN model, ARIMA model and Exponential smoothing models are considered to produce forecast and to measure the forecast accuracy among selected different models. In the present study, forecasting excise was conducted to produce yearly production and productivity forecasts for future five years using selected methods for years 2012-2016 in case of rubber and 2015-2019 for coconut. It is hoped that the identification of the best forecasting model would help the producers as well as consumers in taking appropriate decisions. The production and productivity obtained in coconut and rubber found to be increasing for various reasons, notably due to the fluctuations in climate, extent of area, prices etc. The change in life style has also resulted in the increased demand which yields its significant influence on production and productivity of coconut and rubber in Kerala.