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Dr. Rajendra Prasad Central Agricultural University, Pusa

In the imperial Gazetteer of India 1878, Pusa was recorded as a government estate of about 1350 acres in Darbhanba. It was acquired by East India Company for running a stud farm to supply better breed of horses mainly for the army. Frequent incidence of glanders disease (swelling of glands), mostly affecting the valuable imported bloodstock made the civil veterinary department to shift the entire stock out of Pusa. A British tobacco concern Beg Sutherland & co. got the estate on lease but it also left in 1897 abandoning the government estate of Pusa. Lord Mayo, The Viceroy and Governor General, had been repeatedly trying to get through his proposal for setting up a directorate general of Agriculture that would take care of the soil and its productivity, formulate newer techniques of cultivation, improve the quality of seeds and livestock and also arrange for imparting agricultural education. The government of India had invited a British expert. Dr. J. A. Voelcker who had submitted as report on the development of Indian agriculture. As a follow-up action, three experts in different fields were appointed for the first time during 1885 to 1895 namely, agricultural chemist (Dr. J. W. Leafer), cryptogamic botanist (Dr. R. A. Butler) and entomologist (Dr. H. Maxwell Lefroy) with headquarters at Dehradun (U.P.) in the forest Research Institute complex. Surprisingly, until now Pusa, which was destined to become the centre of agricultural revolution in the country, was lying as before an abandoned government estate. In 1898. Lord Curzon took over as the viceroy. A widely traveled person and an administrator, he salvaged out the earlier proposal and got London’s approval for the appointment of the inspector General of Agriculture to which the first incumbent Mr. J. Mollison (Dy. Director of Agriculture, Bombay) joined in 1901 with headquarters at Nagpur The then government of Bengal had mooted in 1902 a proposal to the centre for setting up a model cattle farm for improving the dilapidated condition of the livestock at Pusa estate where plenty of land, water and feed would be available, and with Mr. Mollison’s support this was accepted in principle. Around Pusa, there were many British planters and also an indigo research centre Dalsing Sarai (near Pusa). Mr. Mollison’s visits to this mini British kingdom and his strong recommendations. In favour of Pusa as the most ideal place for the Bengal government project obviously caught the attention for the viceroy.

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Subject: Agricultural Statistics and Informatics × Author: DE, ARUP × Start date: 2017 × Thesis Type: M.Sc ×
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    ThesisItemOpen Access
    FORECASTING OF PINEAPPLE YIELD IN TRIPURA AND BIHAR USING NON LINEAR MODELS AND IT'S TREND ANALYSIS
    (DRPCAU, PUSA, 2021) DE, ARUP; Kumar, Mahesh
    The present study is based on time series data collected for 32 years (1987-88 to 2018-19) to study the trend of area, production and productivity of pineapple in Tripura and Bihar and also to forecast the pineapple yield by using different non-linear models namely Logistic model, Gompertz model and Monomolecular model. Data from 1987-88 to 2017-18 are used for analysis purpose and 2018-19 data is used for model validation purpose. Socio economic condition of the farmers of Gomati district of Tripura, also taken as a objective of these experiment. Though the actual values of area, production and productivity were fluctuating over the period but overall trend is showing an linearly increasing pattern. Kendall, Spearman and Pearson test is done for testing the validity and result shows a highly significant positive correlated value for all the test. After comparing these three non-linear models with eleven statistics it is clear that Logistic model is most appropriate model for forecasting the pineapple yield in both the sate as it shows highest value of R2, adj. R2, R27 and R28 and lowest value of RSS, MAPE, MAE, MSE, RMSE, RSE and MSE. nn. Lowest Chi-square value of was found in Logistic model for both the state. In case of forecasting for productivity of pineapple in Tripura, the Logistic model shows closest value to actual productivity with a forecast error of 19.79% in OSAF method. In case of Tripura, percentage forecast error is some extent to high and that is due to highly variation in yield during that period of time. Whereas in case of forecasting the pineapple yield for Bihar, all the models shows almost similar result in OSAF method. Percentage forecast error for Bihar is 2.45 % for selected Logistic model. Forecasted Pineapple yield in Tripura for the year 2018 to 2022 are almost equal i.e.17.44 q/hac, and for Bihar for the year 2018-2022 are almost equal to 26.71 q/ha. Selected Logistic model for forecasting of yield of Pineapple for Tripura and Bihar are as below: Ŷ =17.4488/ (1 +3.4532 *exp(-0.2696*t) ) for Tripura Ŷ =26.72232/ (1 +10.50813*exp(-0.3022*t) ) for Bihar Annual income of the majority of the farmers of the study area are in between 1 lakh to 5 lakh and age, occupation, education, size of land holding, farming experience, farm mechanization and type of land shows a significant correlation with annual farmers income. The regression analysis shows that size of operational land shows highly significant with the farmer’s annual income.