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Sri Karan Narendra Agriculture University, Jobner

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Subject: Agricultural Economics × Thesis Type: Ph.D ×
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    ThesisItemOpen Access
    An Explanatory Analysis of International Agricultural Trade of India Along with a Glimpse of COVID-19
    (2022) SUMAN, JITENDRA; Shekhawat, P.S.
    The research study entitled “An Explanatory Analysis of International Agricultural Trade of India along with a Glimpse of COVID-19” was aimed to study growth and instability in exports and imports, India‟s comparative advantages among exporters of major agricultural commodities, the bilateral trade flow of major agricultural commodities from India to major other partners, export demand and supply functions of selected major crops, factors affecting agricultural trade of India and also explore the quick glimpse of covid-19. The present study was based on the secondary data for the period 2001-02 to 2019-20. The data were collected from various sources like official website of APEDA, DGCI&S Kolkata, FAO and world bank etc. These data were analyzed through various statistical methods (i. e. exponential function, Cuddy-Della index, Balassa‟s index of Revealed Comparative Advantage, gravity model of trade, simultaneous equation model, Cob-Douglas production function and glimpse of COVID-19 also assessed on the basis of secondary data) for achieving the stated objectives. The results of the study revealed that all the agricultural commodities had significant growth in exports and imports at 1 per centlevel of significance during the study period 2001-02 to 2019-20. Agricultural commodities like basmati rice, non-basmati rice, sugar, cotton, tobacco, guar, sesame, groundnut, castor oil, spices, coffee, vegetables, fruits, meat and edible meat offal, marine products and dairy products were registered high growth in exports as compared to pulses, oil meal, tea and cashew nut. Among the all selected commodities, cotton registered highest growth by 26.93 per cent in exports whereas, lowest growth observed by cashew nut at the rate of 4.03 per cent per annum during the study periods. In case of agricultural imports, vegetable oil was the largest imported commodity which registered growth by 12.76 per cent per annum. The highest growth in agricultural imports was reported by sugar at the rate of 22.56 per cent while, cotton registered lowest growth by 8.06 per cent during the periods. All the agricultural commodities were found significant growth in import at 1 per cent level of significance. The analysis of instability index showed that high degree of instability in agricultural exports registered by commodities like basmati rice, non-basmati rice, pulses, sugar, cotton, guar groundnut, oil meal and dairy products whereas, moderate degree of instability was found in exports of tobacco, sesame, castor oil, coffee, cashew nut, vegetables, meat and edible meat offal and marine products. The low degree of instability in export was reported by spices, tea and fruits during the study period 2001-02 to 2019-20. The instability index in imports of agricultural commodities revealed that fruits, pulses, alcoholic beverage, cotton, sugar and miscellaneous edible preparations had high instability whereas, vegetable oil, cashew nut and cocoa products indicated medium instability in imports. Only spices were observed low instability in imports during the periods. The study of India‟s comparative advantages among exporters of major agricultural commodities depicted that India was found to enjoy comparative advantages in exports of commodities like rice, pulses, sugar, guar, sesame, groundnut, castor oil, oil meal, spices, tea, coffee, cashew nut and marine products while, tobacco, vegetables, fruits and dairy products had registered as comparative disadvantage during the study periods. In case of cotton and meat and edible meat offal, export was found initially comparative disadvantage but later it was improved in India. The results of bilateral trade flows between India and other major continent‟s exporter indicated that agricultural GDP and per capita income was found positive and significant relationship with bilateral trade among all countries. While distance was found negative relationship with bilateral trade, Contiguous border did not have any major influenced on trade between India and Asian countries. Regional trading agreements substantially influence India‟s bilateral trade whereas India had not found any trade agreements between European countries during the study periods. The analysis of exports demand functions revealed that India‟s export price of tea, basmati rice, spices, sugar and cotton had significant relationship with exports demand. The world exports price was significantly affected export demand of tea, coffee, cashew nut, Sugar, fresh fruit and fresh vegetables. In case of coffee, basmati rice, spices, cashew nut, sugar and cotton, world real income had significant relationship with exports demand. While lagged export demand was found significant in case of export demand for basmati rice, tobacco and spices. The exports supply functions indicated that India‟s exports price of coffee, basmati rice, tobacco, cashew nut and sugar had significant relationship with exports supply, whereas, exports supply in case of tea, spices, fresh fruits, fresh vegetables and cotton had insignificant relationship. Supply shock had significant relationship with export supply of spices, cashew nuts, sugar, fresh fruits and cotton, while relationship with exports supply was found insignificantly in case of tea, coffee, basmati rice, tobacco and fresh vegetables. Demand pressure recorded as negative and significant relationship with exports supply of tea, fresh fruits and fresh vegetables, whereas it was found positive and significant relationship with export supply for basmati rice and tobacco. Time variable was found positive and significant relationship in case of tea and sugar while, it had negative and significant relationship for cashew nuts. Further, lagged dependent variable (supply of previous year) had significantly affected the exports supply of basmati rice, spices and fresh vegetables. The analysis of factors affecting in agricultural export depicted that agricultural GDP and agricultural production index had positive and significantly affected agricultural exports, while inflation rate was found negative and significant relationship with agricultural export. Agricultural imports, exchange rate and per capita income was found insignificant during the study period 2001-02 to 2019-20. The study on glimpse of covid-19 during pandemic periods showed that the value of India‟s agricultural exports was increased i.e., ` 3.05 lakh crore in 2020-21 against the ` 2.56 lakh crore in the year previous year 2019-20. This indicated that India‟s agricultural exports were surpassed the pandemic COVID-19 and agricultural sector was more resilient against COVID-19 pandemic.
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