Thumbnail Image

Chaudhary Charan Singh Haryana Agricultural University, Hisar

Chaudhary Charan Singh Haryana Agricultural University popularly known as HAU, is one of Asia's biggest agricultural universities, located at Hisar in the Indian state of Haryana. It is named after India's seventh Prime Minister, Chaudhary Charan Singh. It is a leader in agricultural research in India and contributed significantly to Green Revolution and White Revolution in India in the 1960s and 70s. It has a very large campus and has several research centres throughout the state. It won the Indian Council of Agricultural Research's Award for the Best Institute in 1997. HAU was initially a campus of Punjab Agricultural University, Ludhiana. After the formation of Haryana in 1966, it became an autonomous institution on February 2, 1970 through a Presidential Ordinance, later ratified as Haryana and Punjab Agricultural Universities Act, 1970, passed by the Lok Sabha on March 29, 1970. A. L. Fletcher, the first Vice-Chancellor of the university, was instrumental in its initial growth.

Browse

20223
Reset filters
Subject: Statistics × End date: 2022 × Start date: 2022 × Thesis Type: Ph.D ×
Reset filters

Search Results

Now showing 1 - 3 of 3
  • Thumbnail Image
    ThesisItemOpen Access
    A comparative study of forecast models for sugarcane yield prediction of Haryana
    (CCSHAU, Hisar, 2022-11) Sanjeev; Bhardwaj, Nitin
    Crop yield prediction is one of the most difficult issues in precision agriculture, and numerous models have been proposed. Because agricultural production is affected by a variety of factors such as climate, weather, soil, fertilizer, and seed variety. The most commonly used features in these models are temperature, rainfall, and soil type. Crop yield forecasting plays an important role for decision-makers at the national and regional levels. An accurate crop yield forecast model can help farmers decide what to plant and when to plant. Furthermore, as agricultural trade expanded and transportation infrastructure improved, farmers adopted a more business-like mindset and stopped viewing themselves as subsistence units. The study developed and compared the accuracy of sugarcane yield prediction models such as ARIMA, ARIMAX, ANN, NARX and Hybrid (ARIMA-ANN, ARIMAX-ANN) for the Karnal, Ambala, Kurukshetra, Yamunanagar, Panipat districts and Haryana as whole. The development of various models made use of time series data on sugarcane yields as well as fortnightly weather data on average maximum temperature, average minimum temperature, and accumulated rainfall over the crop period for Karnal, Ambala and Haryana from 1966–1967 to 2014–15, Kurukshetra, Yamunanagar, and Panipat from 1972–1973 to 2014–15. The yield data period from2015-16 to 2019-20 has been used to check the validity of the fitted models for sugarcane yield. The statistical modeling approaches viz., stepwise multiple linear regression, ARIMA, ARIMAX, ANN, NARX and Hybrid (ARIMA-ANN, ARIMAX-ANN) were applied for the study. ARIMAX and NARX models were developed to predict sugarcane yield for selected districts and Haryana using weather variable selected from stepwise multiple linear regression. Finally, forecast performance(s) of the fitted models were observed in terms of percent relative deviation, root mean square error and mean absolute percentage error of sugarcane yield forecasts from observed yield(s). Hybrid (ARIMA-ANN, ARIMAX-ANN) models performed well with lower error metrics as compared to the other fitted models. Five-steps ahead forecast figures i.e. 2015-16 to 2019-20 favored the use of Hybrid models to obtain sugarcane yield forecasts in all selected districts and Haryana under study. Empirical evidence from this study confirms that the Hybrid models can produce reliable forecasts. Therefore, developed forecast models are capable of providing reliable estimates of sugarcane yield well in advance while yield estimates given by state department were obtained quite later.
  • Thumbnail Image
    ThesisItemOpen Access
    Problems and prospects of flower crops in India
    (Chaudhary Charan Singh Haryana Agricultural University hisar, 2022-12) Ritu; Bhatia, Jitender Kumar
    The present study was carried out with the objectives to analyze the trends and growth in area, production and production and productivity of flowers in India, to examine costs involved, returns attained, various marketing channels, value added products from flowers and to identify various constraints in flower cultivation, marketing and export of flower crops in Haryana. The study was based on primary as well as secondary data. The time-series data related to area, production, productivity, export and import of flowers in different zones of India as well as in different zones of Haryana was collected for years 2001-21; the growth rate and trends were computed. The study has been restricted to three crops only i.e. marigold, rose and gladiolus due to availability of reasonable number of flower growers. The study pertains to two districts Sonipat and Gurugram of Haryana. From the selected districts, one block of Sonipat (Rai) and one block of Gurugram (Pataudi) were selected based on highest number of flower cultivators. For marketing data, Delhi flower markets were selected. The outcome of study revealed an increasing trend in the area and production and productivity with CGRs values of 7.86, 8.43 and 3.65 per cent, respectively. Whereas, in Haryana, the trend in area, production of cut flowers and productivity indicated declining trend (-1.04%, -4.64% and -4.54%) over the study period while production of loose flowers illustrated increasing trend with CGRs value of 1.35 per cent. The trends in export indicated declining trend (-2.76%), while import illustrated increasing trend (12.02%). The results of direction of trade of export of flowers from India through Markov value chain resulted that USA was the most reliable country with high probability of retention (0.6217). Per acre total cost of cultivation in French and African marigold worked out was ₹ 65948.48 and ₹ 45495.37, respectively. The corresponding figures for rose were 132874.91for 1st year and ₹ 123884.7 for 2nd year and for gladiolus it was ₹ 318096.63 for 1st year and ₹ 82960.16 for 2nd year. Further, the net returns for French and African marigold were ₹ 177651.52 and ₹ 128504.63, respectively. The corresponding figures for rose were ₹164620.36 for 1st year and ₹ 404866.99 for 2nd year and for gladiolus were ₹170595.87 in 1st year and ₹ 405732.34 in 2nd year. It was found that channel-I was the most efficient among all the marketing channels in disposal of flowers. While considering marketing of value-added products then found that processor’s margin was highest and marketing efficiency was highest among shortest marketing channels for marketing of all floricultural products. Attack of insects-pests, high input prices were major cultivation problems, while transportation cost and high commission charges were major marketing constraints and lack of lack of exporting agencies, coordination among flower growers and exporters and lack of role of FPO’s dealing with flower crops were major export problems faced by farmers in the study area.
  • Thumbnail Image
    ThesisItemOpen Access
    Resampling Techniques For Evaluating G × E Interaction In Oilseed Crops
    (Chaudhary Charan Singh Haryana Agricultural University hisar, 2022-09) Deepankar; Hooda, B. K
    In multi-environment trials (METs), a set of genotypes is grown simultaneously in different set of environments. The major objective of METs is identification of genotypes which consistently perform across a wider range of environments. To assess the stability of genotype, in literature there exists various parametric and non-parametric measures. But researcher faces conundrum of choosing appropriate stability measure before moving to main objective of MET. To ease researcher in this dilemma, we developed majority approaches where the results of various parametric and nonparametric stability measure were combined. Under majority approaches, we evaluated i) rank sum of parametric and non-parametric stability measures, ii) modal approach, iii) A new weighted-normalized index and iv) a composite measure using TOPSIS algorithm. A statistical distribution is a mathematical function that describes how the results of an experimental trial are likely to occur at random. The stability measures are a complex function of observed values therefore it is difficult to develop theoretical framework to predict their sampling distribution. Hence bootstrap technique has been used to determine their sampling distributions of stability measures. In METs, for studying GEI, additive main effects and multiplicative interactions (AMMI) and genotype and genotype x environment interaction (GGE) models are frequently used by researchers. In both models after removing the additive effect, singular value decomposition is used to partition genotype x environment interaction into ordered sum of multiplicative terms. Researchers usually retain first two multiplicative terms for biplot analysis without giving much thought in checking the significance of multiplicative terms for retention. The resampling techniques such as bootstrap and cross-validation have been used to test the significance of the multiplicative terms by approximating p value for each multiplicative term. Only those multiplicative terms have been retained in model which are found to be significant i.e., p value < 0.05 or 0.01.