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ThesisItem Open Access A Statistical Investigation on Sugar Production in India(University of Agricultural Science, Dharwad, 2017-06) Megha J.; Havaldar, Y.N.A study on the detailed scenario of sugar production in India was conducted during 2015-2017 at the Department of Agricultural Statistics, University of Agricultural Sciences, Dharwad. The secondary data of area and production of sugarcane, sugar production and sugar export data was collected from 1990 to 2015. CAGR, CV, Coppack’s instability index, Cuddy della valle index, Markov chain analysis and non-linear regression models were employed to investigate the present study. India’s sugar production was found to be stable during the initial years but later on production was quite instable due to fluctuations in area and production of sugarcane. The results from Markov chain analysis revealed that the highest retention of export was noticed in UAE (83.00 %) followed by Malaysia (62.00 %), Srilanka (57.30 %), Bangladesh (38.20 %), USA (37.4 %) and other countries (56.40 %). To maintain their retention, UAE gained 6.7 percent of export from Srilanka, 25.8 per cent from USA and 4.4 percent from others. For predicting sugar production with respect to sugarcane area, the compound model was found to be best fit with highest R2 of 93.3 per cent, minimum root mean square error of 0.30 and standard error of 0.094. Based on the sugarcane production, cubic model was found to be best fit with highest R2 of 91.6 per cent, minimum mean square error and standard error of 0.103 and 0.10 respectively. Overall study revealed that sugar production and export was instable so the new technology should be introduced to increase the sugarcane and sugar production which helps the sugar export to be sustainable.
