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ThesisItem Open Access An economic analysis of production, market integration and export performance of cotton in Haryana(CCSHAU, Hisar, 2023-03) Vinay Kumar; Goyal, S. K.The present study was conducted with the following objectives: (1) To study the growth in area, production and productivity of cotton in Haryana and India, (2) To estimate cost and returns in cotton production and resource use efficiency in Haryana, (3)To examine the trends and relationship of cotton prices and arrivals in major markets of Haryana, (4) To analyse the direction of trade of Indian cotton exports. The study was conducted in two districts of Haryana i.e. Sirsa and Hisar based on highest area under cotton. Both primary and secondary data were used for the study. Two blocks were selected from each selected district. Further, two villages were selected randomly from each selected block. Thus, a total of eight villages were selected for the study and from each selected village, twenty five farmers were selected and personally interviewed with the help of the well-structured schedule. The collected information was analysed to draw meaningful inferences by using statistical tools such as annual compound growth rate, correlation and regression analysis, co-integration, granger causality test and markov chain analysis. Annual compound growth rate of area, production and productivity of cotton exhibited increasing trend in Haryana as well as in India during the year 2001-02 to 2020-21. Cost benefit ratio for cotton cultivation in the study areas came out to be 1.22, 1.04 and 1.13 in Sirsa, Hisar and Overall, respectively. The resource use efficiency of the cotton farms exhibited decreasing returns to scale in both Sirsa (0.419) and Hisar (0.413) districts. Further the results showed that the regression coefficient („b‟) for the cotton prices associated with the time element in the selected markets were positive and whereas, in arrivals Adampur, Siwani and Bhiwani markets had statistically increasing trend. The results for annual compound growth rate estimated considerable increase in cotton prices in selected markets, whereas growth rate for arrival of cotton were found positive but most of the growth rates are non-significant in all markets except Siwani and Bhiwani markets. Seasonal indices analysis estimated that the cotton arrivals in the selected markets were from October to January (peak period) and least were observed in the months of February to May (lean period). The inverse relationship was observed between price and arrivals of cotton in the selected markets with few exemptions. The correlation analysis indicated that the price (time series data) of selected markets was highly correlated between each other. The long run equilibrium relationship provides a clear evidence of the integration of selected cotton markets. This implies that prices in domestic markets of Haryana move together in response to changes in the demand and supply. It was further found that Dabwali market is the lead cotton market because it influenced the prices of most of the selected cotton markets i.e. Adampur, Uklana, Sirsa, Fatehabad, Uchana, Siwani and Bhattukalan market. China is the most stable country among major importers of Indian cotton as reflected by its high probability of retention (69%) followed by Bangladesh (60 %). Other countries were having 49 per cent probability of retention which indicated that other countries were relatively moderate importer of Indian cotton.
