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Subject: Agricultural Statistics and Informatics × Author: Bhattacharjya, Dipankar × Thesis Type: M.Sc ×
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    ThesisItemOpen Access
    PRODUCTION OF MAJOR FRUIT CROPS IN ASSAM A TIME SERIES ANALYSIS
    (2023) Bhattacharjya, Dipankar; Phukon, Manashi Hazarika
    Pomology, one of the key subfields of horticulture, is the study of fruit cultivation. It has been practiced in India for many centuries. Nutritional importance of fruits for human being is well known. Man cannot survive just on cereal. Fruits and vegetables must be consumed for a balanced diet and optimum health. Nearly 90% of the nation's overall horticultural production is made up of fruits and vegetables. India is presently the world's second-largest producer of fruits and vegetables and the world's top producer of various kinds of horticulture crops, including okra, cashew nuts, bananas, papayas, and mangoes. Horticulture crops cover approximately 15% of the total cultivable area of Assam. Assam’s favorable agro-climatic conditions foster the growth of a wide range of fruits and vegetables in the state.For conducting this research secondary data was collected for the period from 1991 to 2020 from the Directorate of Economics and Statistics, Government of Assam. The objectives of my research topic were-  To study the growth trends of area, production and productivity of Major fruits grown in Assam.  To study the instability in area, production and productivity of Major fruits grown in Assam.  To develop a suitable forecast model for describing the production of Major fruits grown in Assam. From CAGR analysis, it was observed that the area, production and productivity of banana, pineapple, orangeshowed positive growth rate. On the other hand, the area and production of coconut also showed positive growth rate. For papaya also production and productivity showed positive growth rate. From CDVI analysis, it was observed that the area, production and productivity of banana, pineapple, papaya and coconut showed low instability while in case of orange the area and productionshowed medium instability but the productivityshowed low instability. For banana production, ARIMA (3,3,1), for pineapple production, ARIMA (6,3,1) and for orange production,ARIMA (2,3,1) were found to be suitable models for forecasting. Similarly, in case of papaya and coconut, ARIMA (2,3,3) and ARIMA (5,3,1) were found to be suitable models for forecasting respectively.