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20201
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Subject: Agricultural Statistics and Informatics × Author: BARUAH, SUJATA × Type: Thesis ×
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    ThesisItemOpen Access
    STRUCTURAL BREAK ANALYSIS OF RAPESEED AND MUSTARD PRODUCTION IN JORHAT DISTRICT OF ASSAM
    (AAU, Jorhat, 2020-10) BARUAH, SUJATA; Paswan, R. P.
    Oilseed crops play a vital role in the Indian agricultural economy and so does in any parts of Assam in terms of area and production. Rapeseed and mustard production in Jorhat have increased from 7817 tonnes in 2012-13 to 9118 tonnes in 2013-14 and then decreased to 8129 tonnes in 2014-15. This reflects the structural change in the economy of the district. The present study is performed to determine the exact time of the structural break in the rapeseed and mustard production, followed by the identification of the factors affecting the crop’s production and finally by examining the presence of cointegration between the crop productivity and the various variables under investigation. The data collected for the study pertained to the annual time series of area, production, productivity, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, total rainfall, bright sunshine hours, and wind speed for the periods 1988-89 to 2014-2015. The results of the structural break analysis reveal that the variables for the crop are non-stationary at levels, indicating the existence of structural breaks. The production of rapeseed and mustard is found to have breaks in the years 1995-96 and 1996-97. Amongst all the factors under investigation, the area is found to have a significant effect on the production of the crop in Jorhat district of Assam. This implies that increasing the land area in the study location may increase the production of the crop in the same place. Johansen’s cointegration test was used to check for the presence of the cointegration between the variables under the crop. It is concluded that the variables in the model are cointegrated. This is followed by the employment of the Vector Equilibrium Correction Model, finally proving the presence of a long-run relationship between the variables. It is found that minimum temperature has a negative relationship with the productivity of the crop whereas area and total rainfall have positive and significant short-run effects on the productivity of rapeseed and mustard crop in the study location.