GOPINATH RAO, MGANESH, V2023-01-142023-01-142022-12-23Th-13439https://krishikosh.egranth.ac.in/handle/1/5810192282In the present study an attempt was made using secondary data for the period of 23 years (1997 to 2019) to understand the trend in area, production and productivity of paddy crop in selected three districts of Andhra Pradesh viz., East Godavari, Krishna and West Godavari district. Forecast was made for the production of paddy crop and further study carried to identify structural change in area and productivity of paddy crop. Trend analysis was performed by fitting different models such as linear, quadratic, cubic, exponential and log-logistic model. Based on the minimum MAPE value, it was evident that exponential model was best fit for area and cubic model were good fit for production and productivity of paddy in East Godavari district. Exponential model good fit model for area and productivity of paddy and linear model was found better model for production in Krishna district. For West Godavari district linear model was best for area and cubic model were deemed to be the good model for production and productivity. Study also focused to forecast the production of paddy crop in selected district based on the best fitted model for next 5 years. East Godavari and West Godavari districts shows increasing trend while Krishna district shows decreasing trend. The structural break of area and productivity of paddy in East Godavari, Krishna and West Godavari was observed during the post 2000 periodsEnglishThesis