Vilas S. KulkarniSantosh M. Bandi2016-11-122016-11-122011http://krishikosh.egranth.ac.in/handle/1/85256Analysis of prices and forecasting the prices over time is important for formulating a sound agricultural policy. Fluctuations in market arrivals largely contribute to price instability. Price instability is useful to farmers in order to decide the optimum time for disposing their produce to their best advantage. In view of this the present study was undertaken by collecting weekly spot prices of sugar in major markets of India for a period of 6 years (2004-05 to 2009-10). The futures prices for sugar were collected for Aug 2007 to Nov 2009. The growth rate analysis revealed that production growth rate is highly significant. An increasing trend in prices was observed in all the markets, but the quantum of increase varied from one market to another. Price of sugar was found to be highest during off season and lowest during sugarcane harvest season. The higher weekly seasonal indices of prices were observed during March to April, low during the months of June and August. Hence, the sugar factories should plan their marketing strategy particularly in these weeks. ARIMA analysis was employed to quantify the variation in prices and also to forecast sugar prices. The forecasted prices in all the markets showed an increasing value. Analysis of co-integration showed that there existed a strong integration between spot and futures prices for sugar markets. Hence, sugar economy should take this advantage to encourage the production of sugar. The analysis revealed that, by storing sugar and selling during off season would help the producer in getting higher returns. Finally it was recommended to disseminate the forecasted prices to sugar factories for their advantage.Thesis