SRINIVASA RAO, VAJITH, S2020-02-272020-02-272019http://krishikosh.egranth.ac.in/handle/1/5810143717D5894The present study entitled “Effect of National Food Security Mission on Food Grain Production in India” has been undertaken to study the effect on National Food Security Mission (NFSM) on major food grain crops in India as well as in the leading producing states and to forecast the area, production and productivity major food grain crops in India. This present study is based on the time series data of area, production and productivity of major food grain crops such as rice, wheat, total pulses and total coarse cereals as well as the total food grain crops from the year 1951-51 to 2016-17. To study the effect of NFSM the total study period was divided into four time periods viz., 1951-1965 (pre-green revolution period), 1966-1988 (green revolution period), 1988-2006 (post-green revolution period) and 2007-2017 (National Food Security Mission-NFSM period). The Compound Growth Rate (CGR) and Cuddy-Della instability index were calculated for each time period as well as for the total period. The growth rate and instability in the area, production and productivity of major food grain crops during National Food Security Mission period were compared with other periods. Linear, non-linear and time series models such as Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Holt‟s double exponential smoothing models were fitted to the area, production and productivity of rice, wheat, total pulses, total coarse cereals and total food grain crops in India The best fitted models have been selected based on the model selection criteria such as R2, RMSE, MAE, AIC and BIC values. Forecasting of area, production and productivity of major food grains crops in India was done up to the year 2021-22 by using the respective best fitted models. This study revealed that there was positive growth rate in the production of major food grain crops during NFSM period in all the six leading states as well as in India. Noticeably the huge growth rate was obtained in the production of wheat (36.14 per cent), pulses (16.41 per cent) and coarse cereals (21.62 per cent) as well as in the total food grain production (29.42 per cent) in Madhya Pradesh during NFSM period. Similarly there was high growth rate in the rice production (17.49 per cent) in Bihar during the NFSM period. This study also revealed there will be an increasing trend in the area, production and productivity of rice, wheat, total pulses, total coarse cereals and total food grain crops in India in the next five years except the cultivated area of rice and coarse cereals. The forecasted area, production and productivity of food grain crops in India would be 1,28,009 thousand hectares, 2,90,744 thousand tonnes and 2,350 kg ha-1 respectively in the year 2021-22.en-USnullThesis