NidhiV, Kishor Kumar2020-11-252020-11-252020M/STAT/485/2018-19https://krishikosh.egranth.ac.in/handle/1/5810155699The present study entitled “Characterization of Temporal Dynamics of Millets using Mixed-Method Approach – A Case Study of Ragi in Karnataka” is based on the growth trends in Ragi area, production and yield in Karnataka, ARIMA models for price forecasting of ragi in Kolar and Bangalore districts of Karnataka and the knowledge, attitude and practice of farmers engaged in Ragi cultivation. For area, production and yield of ragi, the data collected for the period of 1950-51 to 2017-18 from www.indiastat.com for Karnataka as well as India. Time series data on prices of Ragi have been obtained from the website (www.agmarknet.gov.in) of Directorate of Marketing and Inspection, Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare, Govt. of India. Monthly average for minimum and maximum prices have been used for two districts of Name of student : Kishor Kumar V Admission/Registration no. : M/STAT/485/2018-19 Post Graduate degree programme : M.Sc. Ag. (Agricultural Statistics) Department : Basic Sciences and Languages (SMCA, P & L) Major subject : Agricultural Statistics Minor subject : Agricultural Economics Major advisor : Dr. Nidhi Total No. of pages : 72+ⅰ-vi (Bibliography) Year : 2020 Title of the research work : Characterization of Temporal Dynamics of Millets using Mixed-Method Approach – A Case Study of Ragi in Karnataka Karnataka viz., Kolar and Bangalore for a period of nine years i.e., 2011 to 2019 have been used to develop forecasting model. Data from Jan 2011 to Dec 2017 have been applied for model development whereas that for the period of January 2018 to December 2020 for data validation. The portion of data used to develop the model is referred to as training set and that for validating the model is termed as test set. Survey has conducted to obtain information on the socio-demographic profile, knowledge, attitude and practice of farmers engaged in ragi cultivation has obtained by use of semi-structured questionnaire. This study aims at investigating the trend in ragi crop area, production and yield in Karnataka and India. The analysis indicates that there was a significant declining trend in area under Ragi cultivation for Karnataka as well as India from 1951 to 2018. The production and productivity of ragi showed an increasing trend for Karnataka and India as well from 1951 to 2018. Forecasting models have been developed to forecast the price of Ragi in the market of two districts of Karnataka, viz., Bangalore and Kolar. Box-Jenkin’s autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) has been implemented to develop these models. Forecasting models has been developed to predict the price of Ragi in the market of two districts of Karnataka, viz., Bangalore and Kolar. For Kolar district, ARIMA (1,1,2) (1,1,1) and ARIMA (2,1,1) (1,1,1) models are found to be most suitable for forecasting the minimum and maximum market prices respectively. Forecast values along with 95% confidence intervals have been generated for the period starting from Jan 2017 to Dec 2018 using the identified models. The confidence interval is observed to be growing wider with increasing time; hence it can be concluded that the identified ARIMA models for forecasting minimum and maximum market price of Ragi are better for making short term forecasts, preferably for six months. The time series plots of minimum and maximum prices of ragi in Bangalore district were observed to be more fluctuating as compared to that of Kolar district. ARIMA (1,1,0) (0,1,1) and ARIMA (3,1,1) (1,1,1) models were found to be most suitable for forecasting the minimum and maximum market prices respectively in Bangalore district. The 95% confidence intervals generated for the forecast values of both the prices for Bangalore were observed to be much wider compared to that for Kolar. Qualitative analysis has done to identify factors responsible for the observed trend vis the experiences and perceptions of farmers with respect to their knowledge, attitude, practices, constraints they face in ragi cultivation. A semi-structured questionnaire has been developed to collect the knowledge, attitude and practice of farmers engaged in ragi cultivation. The selected ragi cultivating farmer-respondents are same as far as their age and family size is concerned except their education level and land holding. Most of farmer’s income generated through ragi crop cultivation with livestock (40.64%) and remaining (56.30%) income generated through other cereals and pulses.EnglishThesis