SIROHI, SMITAKANWAL, VINITA2023-11-082023-11-082018https://krishikosh.egranth.ac.in/handle/1/5810200678Agriculture sector is the backbone of India in terms of food supply and employment which is subjected to frequent risks that are in turn very pervasive and complex in nature. Sources of risk could be many including natural disasters (like droughts and floods). Often the level of severity of risks vary according to different farm households, farming systems, geographical location, weather conditions, supporting government policies and farm types etc. Therefore, from policy perspective it is important to look into the extent of production risk and how the natural disasters are affecting them. Besides the production, natural disasters can also cause the risk in consumption in the form of reduced consumption and increased malnourishment. It is further necessary the ex-ante assessment of those people who are food secure but vulnerable and food-insecure but nonvulnerable could be made. Other than this it is also important to take into notice the perception of local farmers regarding various types of risk they face and their frequency. Checking the efficacy of ongoing risk coping mechanisms is also crucial from policy perspectives. Keeping these considerations in mind, the present study was undertaken in the state of Rajasthan both at micro and macro level. The study was analyzed based on district level area, production, productivity of major crops and rainfall data for the period from 1980 to latest (2013). Data on livestock population, production and productivity at state level was also used for the years of 1985 to 2016. Instability indices, rainfall anomaly, year on year percentage change and correlation coefficients were used to analyze the extent of instability in yield and prices and their inter-linkages with natural disasters was established. National Sample Survey Office’s unit record data (consumption expenditure for 66th round (2009-10) and 68th round (2011-12)) was used to estimate food and nutritional insecurity in year of drought. The year of 2009-10 was drought year for Rajasthan and 2011-12 was normal year. The primary data was collected for agricultural year of 2016-17 from 360 selected households with the help of pre-defined and pilot tested schedule through personal interview in districts of Bikaner and Kota. Risk perception index was an added dimension. Also, household specific utilization of risk management option was carried out with the help of logit regression. Multinomial ordered logit was used to see the efficacy of crop-insurance scheme as a risk management option. There was a wide variation in rainfall anomaly across the districts of Rajasthan. During 1980s three years viz. 1980, 1981 and 1987 were years of extreme droughts while during 1990s; 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001 and 2002 were extreme drought years. Production instabilities were more in kharif crops as compare to rabi crops. In general, coarse cereal and pulses displayed highest production instability followed by super cereals and oilseeds. Production instability was mainly due to instabilities in yield rather than instability in area. Price instabilities were very less that indicates an overall stability in prices for the period of 36 years. However compound annual growth (CAGR) rate of prices for this period was less than 1% that indicates substantial instabilities. Vulnerability to poverty in Rajasthan was 12.4% in normal year that increased to 20% in drought year. The corresponding poverty head count ratio was 22.3% in normal year and 33.5% in drought year. Vulnerability to poverty of households engaged in agriculture was lower as compare to the households that were engaged in non-agricultural activities. It was highest among no-land rural farm households followed by marginal & small land (upto2 ha) and medium land households. Head-count poverty in normal year was merely 22.3% while incidence of malnourishment in that year was more than doubled (54.3%). Hailstorm (44.5%) followed by drought (43.4%) and pest and disease of livestock (40.1%) were the most realized risks during past ten years. Surprisingly around 90% of sample households in Bikaner have never realized the incidences of heat waves. However the incidences of heat waves were completely absent in Kota perhaps due to geographical location. Also, around 76.7% people in Kota never realized the incidence of drought during past 10 years. A majority household indicated that pest/diseases of crops and livestock are the risks perceived by them in various intensities. Risk perception in Bikaner was mainly due to unawareness about the available technology while in Kota it was due to inaccessibility to same. Besides formal compensation method, farmers adopt multiple informal ways to avoid the income risk that includes inter-temporal consumption smoothing and ex-ante risk response measures. The formal risk aversion mechanism was of little use in minimizing income risk in case of yield loss. Regional specific plans must be built up to enhance adaptive capacities of the region. Additionally, drought resistant crops like pulses and oilseeds that were most stable must be promoted in the region. Affluent price policies are need of the hour so that sufficient encouragement can be provided to the farmers to grow the selected income enhancing crops. The stable production of meat, milk and other livestock products can act as cushion in case of natural disasters and hence must be prime focus of policy formulation in event of natural disasters. Irrigation alone is not sufficient to decrease vulnerability to poverty in the event of extreme events and so government programs should be designed more effectively through proper and inclusive policy intervention. Asset base of the households is of less concern and skill development and capacity building can be important interventions in the region. Public distribution and National Food Security Mission (NFSM) will be of no use until along with food distribution, nutritional management is also taken care of. So awareness about wholesome diet and balance nutriton is the need of the time. Inclusive policy initiatives should be formed to reduce the negative influence of economic risks on the marginal and small farmers. Socially and economically deprived households in general had lower utilization of various risk management strategies and remains under risk. It is important that macro level policy toward better social protection should be designed and implemented considering equity parameter of the households. Increasing the social capital for farmers and reducing the frangibility of farmers to meet the market economy so as to strengthen the ability of farmers to cope with the risk of income fluctuations would provide additional support.EnglishThesis