HIREMATH, G KMAHARJAN, AMINA2019-10-232019-10-232002No . of references 68http://krishikosh.egranth.ac.in/handle/1/5810132610Risk and uncertainties play a vital role in.-agriculture. The present study was undertaken in Northern Dry Zone of Karnataka with the objective of studying the growth and instability in yield of major crops, to ascertain the profitability ovsuccess of major crops by working out the breakeven level of yield, to measure the risk involved in various crops and to suggest appropriate crop plan for the zone. The ideal condition of high growth in yield (>1.93 %) and low interyield instability (< 30 %) was found to exist in wheat, groundnut and sunflower in Belgaum; rice, jowar, bajra, groundnut and sugarcane in Bijapur; wheat, bajra and groundnut in Dharwad and cotton crop in Raichur district. The probability of success was highest (1) in the crops HYV paddy, hybrid maize, sunflower (irrigated) and rainfed cotton among the Kharif season crops; hybrid wheat and bengalgram in rabi season and HYV paddy and groundnut in the summer season and the annual crop sugarcane. Taking into consideration both risk and the average net returns for various crops, the crops with low level of risk (<45%)and high average net returns (>Rs. 1000/ha) were HYV paddy, hybrid maize and sunflower during Kharif season; hybrid wheat during rabi season; HYV paddy in summer and annual crop sugarcane (planted). Employing the MOTAD programming, four different optimum crop plans with varying level of net return and associated risk was determined. The net farm income realized from existing crop plan was Rs. 996.84 crores. The net returns increased from Rs. 1006.02 crores in Model I to Rs. 1437.18 crores in Model IV and the CV increased from 0.09 per cent to 27 per cent, respectively. This clearly indicated the fact that with increase in returns the risk also increased. The result also indicated that the existing crop plan is sub-optimal and there is scope to increase net returns by changing the crop combination.ennullThesis