CHANDEL, ASHUBALA, INDU2019-11-152019-11-152019-10http://krishikosh.egranth.ac.in/handle/1/5810135359ABSTRACT The statistical investigation entitled “Estimation of trends in area and production of capsicum and tomato in Himachal Pradesh” was carried out using secondary time series data on area and production of Capsicum annum and tomato for last 23 years from 1996 to 2018. Different prediction models viz. linear, quadratic, compound, power and autoregressive models were tried forecast the area and production of both the crops. SignificantR , lowest RMSE, lowest Theil’s U statistic and non-significant F value (Chow test) were the selection criteria for a model. Autoregressive model of first order was found suitable to predict the area under Capsicum annum, while the quadratic model was best fit to Capsicum annum production in Himachal Pradesh. Power model was the best fitted model to predict the Capsicum annum production on the basis of area. In case of tomato, the second order autoregressive model was the most suitable to give an advanced estimate of area. The quadratic model was best fit to predict tomato production for a given year. Considering the production as a function of area, compound model was selected as the best fit model. An increase in productivity in both the crops was detected during the studied period.ennullThesis