ROY, ANIRUDDHAKUMARI, JYOTI2023-02-032023-02-032022M/AE/024/2020-21https://krishikosh.egranth.ac.in/handle/1/5810193205Using secondary data from 1991–1992 to 2020–2021 and a variety of statistical methodologies, the study calculated the growth rate, instability index, and decomposition analysis of area, production, and yield of foodgrains in Bihar and India. Area under foodgrains was showing negative growth rate in every decade. Production was showing increasing growth rate in first and third decade but in second decade production of foodgrain was showing negative growth rate. Yield of foodgrains was showing positive growth rate in every decade which was the main source of growth in production. Cereals were following the similar trend as of foodgrains. For pulses scenario was somewhat different. Pulse area as well as production was showing negative growth rate in every decade but its yield was showing positive growth rate in first two decade and negative growth rate in last decade. In cereals, area of rice was showing negative growth rate in all the decade but production and yield was showing positive growth rate in first and third decade and negative growth rate in second decade. Area under maize was showing negative growth rate in every decade except in second decade where it was found positive growth rate. Production of maize was showing positive growth rate in all the decades though its yield was also showing positive growth rate in first and third decade and negative growth rate in second decade. Highest instability in area of foodgrains was observed in first decade but production and yield of foodgrains was showing highest instability in second decade. Production of food crops was showing highest instability during the overall study period. Yield effects of crops were contributing more than area effect in increasing foodgrains production. Net cropped area and gross cropped area in Bihar was following decreasing trend due to a decrease in cultivable area. Due to more intensive cultivation, the cropping intensity in Bihar has increased from 138% in2001-02 to 143% in 2018-19.From 2001–2002 to 2018–19, the yield of every crop under investigation increased. The area, production, and yield of foodgrains were predicted using the ARIMA model. The autoregressive (p) and moving average (q) parameters were identified based on significant spike in plot of (PACF) and (ACF) of various time series model. Forecasting was attempted for the years up to 2025–2026. ARIMA (2,1,1) was found the best fit model for area, production and yield of total foodgrains and cereals. This model had forecasted that area under foodgrain production would decrease in coming years but production and yield would increase. Similar pattern was observed in cereals also. For forecasting the area of pulses ARIMA (1,1,1) was found the best fit model. It was found that in the upcoming years, the area under pulses will diminish. Same ARIMA (1,1,1) was used for forecasting the production of pulses but it had revealed that pulses production would increase for a year and after that it would further decrease. For yield of pulses ARIMA (1,0,1) was found the suitable model and it had forecasted that yield of pulses would decrease in coming years. In light of the study's findings, It has been suggested that more effective production methods be used, fallow land be used for the production of pulses, short-duration varieties may be encouraged, and focused efforts from various line departments be made in order to ensure that Bihar is both food and nutritionally secure.EnglishThesis