Dr. V. B. DarjiLEIMAPOKPAM NETAJIT SINGH2017-03-082017-03-082014http://krishikosh.egranth.ac.in/handle/1/5810004443The present investigation was carried out to fit polynomials and ARIMA models to arrive at a methodology that can precisely explain the fluctuation in area, production and productivity for wheat crop in different district of middle Gujarat region and Gujarat state to compare different models. The error percentage for the selected model was also carried out to test the prediction power. The time series data on area, production and productivity of wheat crop for the period 1960-61 to 2010-11 were obtained from Directorate of Agriculture, Gujarat state, Gandhinagar. The data from year 1960-61 to 2006-07 were used for model fitting and remaining year for testing the forecast.enagriculture, statisticsINVESTIGATIONSThesis