MEGERI, S NSANGANABASAVA, METI2023-01-142023-01-142022-12-20Th-13434https://krishikosh.egranth.ac.in/handle/1/5810192272An effort was made to analyse the trends in area and production of major crops (paddy, maize, cotton, and dry chilli) by considering the data of 23 years i.e., from 1997- 98 to 2019-20 in the undivided Ballari district of Karnataka. The models used for trend analysis included linear, quadratic, quartic, exponential, log-logistic, and GAM models. The model with the least MAPE was chosen as the best fit. GAM was the best-fitting model for maize and cotton area and production. The same model performed well for maize and dry chilli production; quartic and quadratic models were the best fit for the areas of maize and dry chilli, respectively. Based on the best-fit model, the study was also extended to forecast the production of major crops in the district for the next five years, and the results revealed that there is, an increasing trend in production of paddy, maize, and dry chilli, while a slight decreasing trend was observed in cotton production. In addition, an attempt was made to analyse the extent of agricultural diversification in the district, which was studied using the Herfindahl, Simpson, and Entropy indices, and sixteen major crops were considered for the study. From 2000-01 to 2019-20, the district demonstrated greater diversification across all three indices. Furthermore, the entire study period was divided in to two decades for better comparison and the results suggests that both decades are highly diverse, with the first decade being more diverse than the second.EnglishThesis