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Division of Statistics and Computer Science Faculty of Basic Sciences Sher-e-Kashmir University of Agricultural Sciences & Technology of Jammu, Main Campus, Chatha, Jammu
Rice is the main food source for more than half of the world’s population. Basmati rice holds a unique position due to its fragrance, aroma, grain morphology, quality and other desirable traits. India is the world’s leading and exporter of Basmati Rice with an annual production of 60 lakh tonnes, contributing over 70% of the world’s Basmati rice production. In Jammu and Kashmir, Basmati is grown in the region of Jammu. In J&K total Basmati acreage area was 62.37(000’ha) and production 135(000’tons) (Kharif 2018, Report -6 APEDA). Keeping in view the importance of Basmati rice, an investigation entitled “Statistical Modelling for Area and Production of Basmati Rice in Jammu District of J&K State” was conducted with the objectives to assess the pattern of area and production of Basmati in Jammu district as well as to build up time series model(s) for Basmati rice production in Jammu district of J&K. For this purpose all the erstwhile eight blocks under Jammu district viz. R.S Pura, Miran Sahib, Suchetgarh, Arnia, Satwari, Bishnah, Mandal Phallian and Marh were taken purposely .Secondary data on area and production of Basmati rice in Jammu district obtained from Department of Agriculture, Jammu covering the period of years 2005-18 have been used for this study. On the basis of time series data set, the overall average area under basmati rice in Jammu was 28836.21 ha where as average production was 788218.07 q giving overall average productivity as 27.33 q/ha during the last 14 years . The trend of each block showed that there was marginal change in area till 2016 thereafter it showed increasing trend. In case of production, the trend of each block showed marginal change till 2016 thereafter it showed increasing trend. However, there was overall huge decrease in production of Basmati rice in 2014 (473131q) which was due to excessive rainfall in the entire basmati growing areas of Jammu region. Different time series models were obtained for area as well as production of Basmati, block wise as also for entire Jammu district. On the basis of R2 and adj. R2, the best four models were selected. Among these models, cubic trend model obtained for area as Ŷ=24070.982+2.853t-9.030t2+7.096t3 was found to be best fitted (p-value < .000) and for production also, cubic model obtained as Ŷ=424331.276+7.033t2+5.483t3 was found to be best fitted (p-value <.001). Based on this time series model, the predicted production of Basmati rice for Jammu district in year 2019 is expected to be 1751419.04 q with 95% confidence limits (1255976.57q, 2246861.51q). Production of Basmati in blocks of Jammu district showed fluctuation during the study period which is interrelated as wider area gives greater production. But variation in yield may be due to weather condition, technological changes etc. The instability (CVt) in production of Basmati for blocks and overall Jammu district indicated that the instability was having lowest value (5.01) for Suchetgarh block followed by Arnia block with value 5.33 and greatest value (20.58) for Satwari block. So far as entire Jammu district is concerned the overall C.V. was calculated as 31.77% whereas the instability index was 14.96 indicating that there was not much fluctuation in production of Basmati rice during the study period.