BEHAVIOUR OF PRICES AND ARRIVALS OF MAJOR VEGETABLES IN SELECTED MARKETS OF TAMIL NADU
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Date
2021-09-08
Authors
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Acharya N.G. Ranga Agricultural University, Guntur
Abstract
The present study entitled “Behaviour of Prices and Arrivals of Major Vegetables
in Selected markets of Tamil Nadu” was mainly aimed at to study the secular trend,
seasonal indices, cyclic variation, irregular variation, association and to forecast the
arrivals and prices by best fitted model. Four major vegetable markets viz., Chennai
Koyambedu market, Oddanchatram Gandhi market, Madurai Paravai market and
Coimbatore wholesale market for three highly consumed vegetables (onion, tomato and
Green chillies) are considered for this study.
The secondary data on monthly modal prices (Rs/qtl) and total monthly arrivals
(qtls) were collected from respective market Committee for the period of 8 years (2011 to
2018). The trend in the data was studied by the principle of least square. For evaluation of
seasonality in arrivals and prices, Multiplicative time series analysis, twelve month
moving average have been calculated.
In Koyembedu market, tomato arrivals and prices were loftier in the month of
November; onion arrivals were maximum in the month of February whereas the prices
were on hike in the month of September; chillies arrivals were high in the month of
November whereas prices reached its peak in the month of June. In Oddanchatram
market, tomato arrivals were loftier in the month of March whereas peak prices were
observed in the month of July; onion arrivals were maximum in the month of March and
the prices were on hike in the month of October; chillies arrivals were high in the month
of March whereas prices reached its peak in the month of March.
In Paravai market, tomato arrivals and prices were loftier in the month of
November; onion arrivals were maximum in the month of May whereas prices were on
hike in the month of October; chillies arrivals were high in the month of February whereas
prices reached its peak in the month of July. In Coimbatore market, the tomato arrivals
were loftier in the month of December whereas peak prices were observed in the month
of June; onion arrivals were maximum in the month of January and the prices were on
hike in the month of November; chillies arrivals were high in the month of November
whereas prices reached its peak in the month of March.
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To ascertain the relationship between arrivals and prices in respective market,
correlation coefficient was computed. There was a negative and significant correlation
between arrivals and prices of Chillies in Koyembedu market; Onion in Oddanchatram
market; Tomato in Paravai market and Coimbatore vegetable Market. It was inferred
infers that the negative correlation existed between arrivals and prices for all vegetables
in their respective markets except tomato in Koyembedu and Paravai markets.
Seasonal Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average models were used for
forecasting the arrivals and prices. At the identification stage, one or more models are
tentatively chosen and the most suitable models were selected based on highest R2 and
least RMSE. The predicted values and actual values were similar to each other in most of
the cases.
Description
BEHAVIOUR OF PRICES AND ARRIVALS OF
MAJOR VEGETABLES IN SELECTED
MARKETS OF TAMIL NADU