Forecasting technical manpower needs in agriculture in Kerala
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Date
2004
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Department of Agricultural Extension, College of Agriculture, Vellayani
Abstract
The study entitled "Forecasting technical manpower needs in
agriculture in Kerala" was undertaken to forecast the technical manpower
demand and supply in agriculture for a decade in Kerala. It was also
aimed to study the characteristics of the existing employment pattern of
technical manpower. Its aim also included to identify the constraints
faced by the technical manpower in getting gainful employment in
agriculture.
The study was conducted in identified organizations in Kerala state.
A sample of 150 agriculture graduates who were working in different
sectors of agricultural development in the state were selected for studying
the characteristics of existing employment pattern in the state. The study
developed after having discussion with the officials and subject matter
specialists. Well structured and pre-tested interview schedule was used
for data collection. For forecasting the technical manpower demand in the
next decade, data regarding the employment pattern during the last five
years and at present were collected from the government sector, industrial
and corporate sector, research and academic sector, banking sector, non-
governmental organizations and others. Then the trend of variation in the
employment pattern was analysed. Based on this trend future technical
manpower requirement in different sectors was worked out by regression
analysis, For technical manpower supply forecasting agricultural students
enrolled in Kerala Agricultural University from 1995 - 2002 were
collected. In this study based on the data it \\';\'S assumed that 25 per cent
of the students were coming from outside Kerala.
The study revealed that most of the respondents were working in
identified organizations whose functional area IS' research and
development. Most of the respondents were postgraduates and they
receive monthly salary for the service or work rendered by them in the
identified organizations.
The study revealed that in the government sector there will be a
decrease in the demand for the technical manpower in the next decade
even though number of vacancies will rise due to retirement of the
employees.
The factors affecting future technical manpower demand in the
identified organizations were emerging technological development, impact
of GATT and WTO agreement and government policies related to
agriculture, industry and economy, competition between different
enterprises in the agricultural field, opening new areas of employment,
higher salary expectation of employees and improved mechanisms for
rural credit.
As per the study the estimated annual outturn of agricultural
graduates from 2004 to 2010 will be 177.
As per the study the technical manpower demand - supply gap
analysis revealed that the present level of potential unemployment in the
state is about 53.33 per ce~t. The cumulative potential unemployment is
313.
Among the constraints listed out, narrow focus on unemployment
mismatching of education with jobs, delay in updating the curriculum and
lack of adequate practical exposure in starting and running enterprises
were considered to be the major constraints felt by the agricultural
graduates in getting gainful employment in agriculture.
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172291