Non-linear growth models for area, production and productivity of important foodgrains in Haryana
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Date
2019
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CCSHAU
Abstract
The persent study was carried out with the objective to develop non-linear growth models for acreage, production and productivity of total foodgrains in Haryana. Season wise and crop wise best non-linear models for describing growth in area, production and productivity of foodgrains were also considered. We discussed different non-linear growth model and also determined the initial value for each parameter. Three different non-linear growth models viz. Logistic, Gompertz and Monomolecular was used for area, production and productivity of important foodgrains(Rice and Wheat) in Haryana for the period 1966 to 2015. The parameters were estimated using Levenberg - Marquardt’s iterative method of non-linear regression. Best model was selected based on goodness of fit statistics such R2, RMSE and MAE. The best model was used for forcasting of area, production and productivity of foodgrains for the period 2016 to 2020. We found that Logistic model was the best fitted growth model for area, production and productivity of total (kharif+rabi) foodgrains. We also observed that Logistic model is the best fitted growth model for area, production and productivity of kharif and rabi foodgrains in Haryana. Finally we concluded that none of the tried models was found suitable to fit for foodgrains area in Haryana. Logistic model was found suitable to fit for production as well as productivity of foodgrains grown in Haryana followed by Gompertz model.
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