Economics analysis of production and marketing of maize in marathwada region of maharashtra
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Date
2020-12-28
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Vasantrao Naik Marathwada Krishi Vidyapeeth, Parbhani
Abstract
Maize is the third most important cereal, after rice and wheat, for human food in India. Maize is considered a promising option for diversifying agriculture in upland areas of India. Since opportunities are limited for further expansion of maize area, future increases in maize supply will be achieved through the intensification and commercialization of current maize production systems.
A regional shift in production has been observed from north to south; Bihar, Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh were the major maize producing states in 1990s, but during the past decades, states, especially Karnataka, Maharashtra ,Madhya Pradesh, Telangana and Tamil Nadu have become the major maize-producing states.
To meet the desired demand levels of maize and enhance farmer’s income, backward and forward linkage strategies to bring paradigm shift in crop economy. However, it is very pertinent to observe that the national productivity of maize is considerably lower than the global standards .
Efficiency analysis is an issue of interest given that the overall productivity of an economic system is directly related to the efficiency of production of the components within the system. The price fluctuations in agricultural commodities are a common phenomenon due to their seasonal nature of production, wide ecological imbalances compared to other crops and seasonal demand for agricultural commodities. Fluctuations in market arrivals largely contribute to price instability and price fluctuations of agricultural commodities. Forecasting of prices is the most important tool in the planning process. Investors, entrepreneurs, and policy makers need to analyze the current and future economic situations and provide their sales and production decisions based on this information. Considering these points the present study has been undertaken with an objective to forecast the future prices of maize before harvest to help the farmers to take appropriate selling and storage decisions. It is also useful for farmers to plan their crop cultivation activities so that they could fetch more price in the market. This innovative application is not only useful for farmers and consumers but also useful for agriculture planning; framing policies and schemes in agriculture and market planning.
With this backdrop, this particular study entitled Econometric Analysis of Production and Marketing of Maize in Marathwada Region of Maharashtra has been undertaken with the specific objectives as follows.
Thus the findings of the study would throw light on various issues related to production and marketing of maize which would helpful to policy makers, administration and farmers in formulating the appropriate strategies.
Socio-economic characteristics of maize growers were estimated . It was observed that, the middle age farmers was 38.33 per cent, the young which was 31.11 per cent and old group farmers was 30.56 per cent. With respect to educational level, higher secondary level was dominating followed by secondary level education .The growers belonged to medium family. In respect of occupational level of maize growers, most of farmers belonged to agriculture . In case of operational land holding, medium group ranging from more than two hectares to four hectares was found to be maximum having per cent farmers.
As regards to Marathwada region, the growth of production of maize was significantly increased during period I and significantly decreased in period-II. At overall period, it was positive but not at significant level. Inconsistent growth was observed in productivity of maize in Marathwada region resulted in increasing productivity during Period-I, decreasing and negative in period-II to the tune At overall level. Productivity was increased slightly. In Marathwada region the insatiability in area of maize during Overall period was 26.55 percent .In regard to Maharashtra state, instability in area of maize was . It was concluded from table that production of maize in all districts of Maharashtra state was unstable during the period of study.
Per hectare physical inputs use of hired male labour and female labour was 20.09 man days and 35.57 man days, respectively. Use of bullock labour was 11.91 pair days while the use of machine labour was 13.88 hours. The seed use was 15.17 kg per hectare of various hybrid varieties . In case of fertilizers, use of nitrogen was 95.26 kg followed Phosphorus by 58.20 kg and amount of potash 45.36 kg per hectare, supplemented with on an average quantity of 16.44 kg of micronutrient ,while 1.67 liters of plant protection was used to control pest and diseases on maize and 0.99 lit of weedicde for controlling weeds in kharif season . The main produce (grain) was 64.33 quintals and by produce (straw) was 47.99 quintals. The per hectare cost of cultivation was Rs.71438.87 and per hectare net profit from maize cultivation crop was gained Rs.56662.35. The farm business income was Rs.84233.67 likewise family labour income was Rs.60551.51.Per quintal cost of production of maize was Rs.1110.54 and Output-Input ratio was 1.79.
The regression coefficient of maize output with energy source viz. human labour ,bullock labour, machine labour showed that, if one unit increased out put increases 3.10,2.47 and 1.93 unit of maize grain yield .The inputs like seed, plant protection, weedicide and micronutrient were showed positive impact and increasing gain yield 0.82,0.85,0.87 and 0.07 unit ,respectively.
The result of estimated Cobb-Douglas production function for the maize production are summarized. The variance inflator factor (VIF) of seed (39.395) and chemical fertilizers (42.239) indicating high multicollinearity which was troublesome for regression analysis indicating evidence that manure was not so much colloinear with the other regressors.
The resource productivity of input used in the cultivation of maize in Aurangabad and Jalna district of Marathwada region of Maharashtra indicated that, the areas under maize was statistically significant (1 percent level) , quantity of seed and weedicide were statistically significant (5 per cent level) ,Chemical fertilizers fertilizer (NPK), Plant protection material variables were applied in the cultivation had significant positive regression coefficients, indicating that at current level these resources were under applied and did not have a significant influence.
The variance parameters of Stochestic frontier production functions for Sigma squared (δ2) and gamma (γ) are 0.0058 and 0.5081,indicated the goodness of fit and correctness of the distributional form assumed for the composite error term while the gamma γ indicates the systematic influences that, were un-explained by the production function and the dominant sources of random errors. This means that, the inefficiency effects make significant contribution to the technical inefficiencies of maize growers . The result showed that inefficiency effects were present and significant. Among the various independent variables area, seed, chemical fertilizers ,plant protection and weedicide have positive coefficients indicating that there is scope for increasing production of maize by increasing the level of these inputs. The variables viz; human labour, bullock labour, machine labour , manures and micronutrients have negative coefficient indicating excess use of inputs than required .
The results of Cobb-Douglas production function using ridge regression for maize showed that, the output of maize increased by 0.86 per cent due to 1 per cent increase in area .Coefficient of human labour was positive but not at significant level and results in very small increase in output, only 0.029 per cent by increase in 1 per cent of human labour. The use of bullock labour and machine labour in cultivation of maize had negatively significant impact on output at 0.020 per cent and 0.070 per cent . It means that maize output was reduced by 0.020 per cent and 0.070 per cent when bullock labour and machine labour quantity was increased by 1 per cent respectively.
The variance inflation factor (VIF) for seed was near about 10 (9.60) indicating multicollinearity which was troublesome for regression analysis at higher level .The application of manure and micronutrient in cultivation of maize had negatively significant impact on output at 0.0082 per cent and 0.076 per cent .
In Aurangabad APMC market, the value of standard deviation showed higher variation from month to month price
In Jalna APMC market, the value of standard deviation showed the irregularity of arrival per month and higher variation from month to month price.The trend analysis of arrival of maize in Aurangabad and Jalna markets showed decreasing and non significant trend.The trend analysis of prices of maize in Aurangabad and Jalna markets showed increasing trend .
In the selected markets arrivals reached peak during November (296.70 , 312.00) and December (330.60 and 278.20) after immediate of kharif harvest and decrease gradually and arrival were lowest for both market in June ,July ,August and September .The market from October to February was glutted with maize produce because mostly the farmers sold their produce immediately after harvest. The higher market arrivals were found (more than 100) to be prominent in the months of October ,November, December, January and February in the selected markets .
SARIMA (0, 1, 0) (0, 1, 1)12 model for maize price were found to be the most appropriate model among the 23 forecasting models tested for Aurangabad and Jalna . The maize price in Aurangabad market was forecasted to Rs. 1737 per quintal in January 2020, and in December 2020, forecasted maize price was Rs. 1808 per quintal .The maize price in Jalna market was forecasted to Rs. 1767per quintal in January 2020, and in December 2020, forecasted maize price was Rs. 1778 per quintal .
The maize price forecasted for Aurangabad and Jalna market in the month of October ,November, December and January showed lowest prices due to bulk arrival of maize after harvesting .The prices in the month of June, July, August and September were lowest because the arrival of maize in market was less as compared to peak period of arrival immediate after harvest.
The results inferred that, the most important constraint in cultivation of maize was high cost of seed, Infestations of pests and diseases especially fall armyworm and Severe drought condition or long dry spell, non availability of credit facility in time, high cost of fertilizers and plant protections, high labour wages, poor availability of quality seed materials, lack of technical guidance about mechanized farming , depletion of soil fertility , and crop damaged by stray animals, wild animals .
The most important constraint in marketing of maize which rank first was price fluctuation , lack of remunerative price of the crop , lack of public procurement on MSP, deduction in payments by commission agent, high cost of transportation , distress sale , market places were far away , exploitative practices of intermediaries , delayed cash payment from the traders , and malpractices in weighing , Suggestions opined by maize growers to overcome the constraints in production and marketing of maize were inferred that, the initiatives of govt. procurement on MSP in peak harvesting period ,seed price policy by Govt, appropriate credit facility in time , crop insurance in drought and pest incidence , timely supply of inputs and reasonable input costs
.