TIME SERIES ANALYSIS OF AREA, PRODUCTION AND PRODUCTIVITY OF MAJOR PULSES IN ANDHRA PRADESH
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Date
2019
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ACHARYA N G RANGA AGRICULTURAL UNIVERSITY, GUNTUR
Abstract
The present study entitled “Time series analysis of area, production and productivity of major pulses in Andhra Pradesh” has been undertaken to fit different linear, non-linear growth models and Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models for the area, production and productivity of major pulses such as Bengalgram, Redgram, Greengram, Blackgram and Horsegram as well as to provide forecasts up to the year 2022 AD. The study was carried out for the state of Andhra Pradesh using time series data from 1971 to 2017.
Different growth models such as linear, logarithmic, quadratic, cubic, power, exponential models and time series models such as ARIMA were applied for the data on area, production and productivity of respective pulses and the best fitted model was chosen on the basis of diagnostic criteria like highest R2 and lowest MSE, RMSE, MAPE and BIC. The best fitted models were used to obtain the future projections upto 2022 AD. In order to study the percentage contribution of area, productivity and their interaction effects towards the growth in the production of pulse crop, decomposition analysis has been carried out.
It was observed that the area, production and productivity of Bengalgram showed an increasing trend during the study period. Redgram as well as Blackgram area, production and productivity also showed an increasing trend during the study period. Greengram area and production exhibited a decreasing trend whereas, productivity showed an increasing trend during the study period. Area and production of Horsegram showed a declining trend whereas, productivity showed an increasing trend during the study period.
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The study revealed that ARIMA (1, 1, 1) model was the best fitted model for area and productivity of Bengalgram, area and production of Redgram as well as production and productivity of Blackgram respectively. Cubic model was the best fitted model for productivity of Redgram, production and productivity of Greengram as well as production and productivity of Horsegram respectively. ARIMA (1, 2, 1) was the best fitted model for Bengalgram production and Blackgram area respectively. ARIMA (2, 2, 1) was the best fitted model for Greengram area and Horsegram area respectively.
The future projections of area, production and productivity of Bengalgram, Redgram and Blackgram showed an increasing trend up to the year 2022 AD. Area and production projections of Greengram showed a decreasing trend whereas, productivity forecast showed an increasing trend. Projections of Horsegram area showed an increasing trend whereas, production and productivity seem to be stable in the upcoming years. Overall decomposition analysis revealed that the percentage contribution of area was more dominant in all the crops.
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D5910
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