PERFORMANCE OF INDIA’S COFFEE EXPORT TRADE - AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS
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Date
2011-11
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Publisher
University of Agricultural Sciences GKVK, Bangalore
Abstract
The present study was conducted with the major objective of assessing the performance
of India’s coffee export trade. A total period of 20 years from 1990-91 to 2009-10 was
considered for the purpose. The study was based on secondary data which was collected
from database on coffee published by coffee Board, Government of India, publication of
Directorate of Commercial Intelligence and Statistics, nationals and internationals
journals on coffee, trade and production year books, Food and Agriculture Organization
(FAO). Compound growth rate was used to analyze the growth of Indian coffee export,
Lorenz curve and Gini coefficient were employed to assess the market structure of Indian
coffee export trade and Markov chain analysis was employed to determine the direction
of coffee export from India. The growth of coffee export between two decades over the
period of (1990-91 to 1999-00) and (2000-01 to 2009-10) in terms of quantity, value and
unit value shows an increasing trend, but highest growth was observed in first decade
26.7 per cent and 15.1 per cent in terms of value and unit value respectively. The degree
of market concentration of Indian coffee export is high as it is observed in 2000-01,
2005-06, 2009-10. Gini coefficient values keep on increasing from 0.65, 0.7, 0.71
respectively during the same period and showed high concentration among few exporters.
It shows the difficulty of capture market by new entrants of coffee export trade. Among
the top five importers, the rest of the countries under the category of others had a
retention probability of 0.791 and Italy was the second loyal market for export of Indian
coffee as reflected by the retention probability of 0.625. Further India need to focus on
specialty and Estate branch coffee which add more value to coffee.
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Keywords
exports, coffee, markets, economics, productivity, biological development, imports, marketing, concentrates, area